Trader consensus prices a coup attempt against Xi Jinping before 2027 as a remote tail risk at just 6.5%, driven by the absence of verifiable instability following January 2026 military purges. Official announcements framed the investigations and detentions of top PLA generals like Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli as anti-corruption measures, quashing unconfirmed overseas rumors of a failed plot on January 18 that circulated on social media and opposition outlets. No primary evidence—such as leadership disruptions, public defections, or military movements—has emerged in the three months since, underscoring Xi's consolidated control amid preparations for the 21st Party Congress. Late-breaking scandals or economic crises could shift odds, but current calm prevails.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$115,284 Vol.
$115,284 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$115,284 Vol.
$115,284 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a coup attempt against Xi Jinping before 2027 as a remote tail risk at just 6.5%, driven by the absence of verifiable instability following January 2026 military purges. Official announcements framed the investigations and detentions of top PLA generals like Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli as anti-corruption measures, quashing unconfirmed overseas rumors of a failed plot on January 18 that circulated on social media and opposition outlets. No primary evidence—such as leadership disruptions, public defections, or military movements—has emerged in the three months since, underscoring Xi's consolidated control amid preparations for the 21st Party Congress. Late-breaking scandals or economic crises could shift odds, but current calm prevails.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$115,284End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a coup attempt against Xi Jinping before 2027 as a remote tail risk at just 6.5%, driven by the absence of verifiable instability following January 2026 military purges. Official announcements framed the investigations and detentions of top PLA generals like Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli as anti-corruption measures, quashing unconfirmed overseas rumors of a failed plot on January 18 that circulated on social media and opposition outlets. No primary evidence—such as leadership disruptions, public defections, or military movements—has emerged in the three months since, underscoring Xi's consolidated control amid preparations for the 21st Party Congress. Late-breaking scandals or economic crises could shift odds, but current calm prevails.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$115,284End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a coup attempt against Xi Jinping before 2027 as a remote tail risk at just 6.5%, driven by the absence of verifiable instability following January 2026 military purges. Official announcements framed the investigations and detentions of top PLA generals like Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli as anti-corruption measures, quashing unconfirmed overseas rumors of a failed plot on January 18 that circulated on social media and opposition outlets. No primary evidence—such as leadership disruptions, public defections, or military movements—has emerged in the three months since, underscoring Xi's consolidated control amid preparations for the 21st Party Congress. Late-breaking scandals or economic crises could shift odds, but current calm prevails.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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