Market icon
Economy·Global Rates

People's Bank of China rate change in April?

Market icon
Economy·Global Rates

People's Bank of China rate change in April?

No Change 96.2%

Decrease 3.0%

Increase 1.1%

Polymarket

$18,106 Vol.

No Change 96.2%

Decrease 3.0%

Increase 1.1%

Polymarket

$18,106 Vol.

Increase

$12,689 Vol.

1%

No Change

$3,306 Vol.

96%

Decrease

$2,110 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.Trader consensus strongly favors no change to the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) 7-day reverse repo rate by April 30, reflecting the central bank's steady policy stance amid stabilizing growth within official targets. Key drivers include unchanged Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years in March—the tenth consecutive month of holds—and global banks scaling back rate-cut calls as of April 8, citing sufficient momentum without needing policy rate tweaks, while favoring reserve requirement ratio (RRR) adjustments. Recent PBOC signals emphasize a moderately loose monetary policy via targeted tools rather than benchmark shifts. Potential challenges include unexpectedly weak economic data ahead of mid-April Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations or the April 20 LPR announcement, prompting a surprise easing move.

This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).

An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.

A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.

If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.

An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Volume
$18,106
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.Trader consensus strongly favors no change to the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) 7-day reverse repo rate by April 30, reflecting the central bank's steady policy stance amid stabilizing growth within official targets. Key drivers include unchanged Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years in March—the tenth consecutive month of holds—and global banks scaling back rate-cut calls as of April 8, citing sufficient momentum without needing policy rate tweaks, while favoring reserve requirement ratio (RRR) adjustments. Recent PBOC signals emphasize a moderately loose monetary policy via targeted tools rather than benchmark shifts. Potential challenges include unexpectedly weak economic data ahead of mid-April Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations or the April 20 LPR announcement, prompting a surprise easing move.

This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).

An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.

A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.

If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.

An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Volume
$18,106
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"People's Bank of China rate change in April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Change" at 96%, followed by "Decrease" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "People's Bank of China rate change in April?" has generated $18.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 31, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "People's Bank of China rate change in April?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "People's Bank of China rate change in April?" is "No Change" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Decrease" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "People's Bank of China rate change in April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.