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Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 14?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 14?

Apr 13

Apr 14

Apr 15

Apr 13

Apr 14

Apr 15

26°C 36%

27°C 36%

28°C 18%

25°C 8%

Polymarket
NEW

$13,241 Vol.

26°C 36%

27°C 36%

28°C 18%

25°C 8%

Polymarket
NEW

$13,241 Vol.

21°C or below

$3,654 Vol.

<1%

22°C

$1,126 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$1,208 Vol.

1%

24°C

$2,656 Vol.

2%

25°C

$737 Vol.

8%

26°C

$737 Vol.

36%

27°C

$698 Vol.

36%

28°C

$995 Vol.

18%

29°C

$556 Vol.

4%

30°C

$424 Vol.

1%

31°C or higher

$456 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly favors 26°C (36%) and 27°C (33.5%) as São Paulo's highest temperature on April 14, driven by the latest INMET forecast of a 28°C maximum under partly cloudy skies, tempered by GFS and ECMWF ensembles averaging closer to 26.5°C. Key differentiators include sea breeze strength from the Atlantic, which could cap peaks at 26°C via coastal cooling, versus reduced cloud cover allowing 27°C or higher inland advection of warmer air under a subtropical high-pressure ridge. April climatology shows typical highs near 25°C, but recent stable subsidence aloft supports mild elevations; uncertainty persists with overnight 00Z model updates and final INMET surface observations at Congonhas or other stations resolving the market.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,241
End Date
Apr 14, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly favors 26°C (36%) and 27°C (33.5%) as São Paulo's highest temperature on April 14, driven by the latest INMET forecast of a 28°C maximum under partly cloudy skies, tempered by GFS and ECMWF ensembles averaging closer to 26.5°C. Key differentiators include sea breeze strength from the Atlantic, which could cap peaks at 26°C via coastal cooling, versus reduced cloud cover allowing 27°C or higher inland advection of warmer air under a subtropical high-pressure ridge. April climatology shows typical highs near 25°C, but recent stable subsidence aloft supports mild elevations; uncertainty persists with overnight 00Z model updates and final INMET surface observations at Congonhas or other stations resolving the market.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,241
End Date
Apr 14, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 14?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "26°C" at 36%, followed by "27°C" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 14?" has generated $13.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 14?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 14?" is "26°C" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "27°C" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 14?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.