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Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 15?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 15?

Apr 13

Apr 14

Apr 15

Apr 13

Apr 14

Apr 15

29°C 31%

30°C 25%

28°C 19%

31°C 19%

Polymarket
NEW

29°C 31%

30°C 25%

28°C 19%

31°C 19%

Polymarket
NEW

22°C or below

$865 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$1,543 Vol.

<1%

24°C

$885 Vol.

1%

25°C

$327 Vol.

1%

26°C

$100 Vol.

3%

27°C

$540 Vol.

5%

28°C

$101 Vol.

19%

29°C

$192 Vol.

31%

30°C

$70 Vol.

25%

31°C

$612 Vol.

19%

32°C or higher

$295 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 29°C (31% implied probability) as Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 15, closely trailed by 30°C (24.5%) and 28°C (19.5%), reflecting the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's recent forecasts projecting afternoon peaks of 29-30°C amid southerly winds, high pressure, and limited cloud cover. Recent days, including April 13-14 highs near 29°C, have reinforced this warm pattern above April's climatological average of 26°C, boosted by urban heat island effects in the densely built city. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing—earlier onset could suppress maxima to 28°C via cooler marine air advection, while delays enable 30-31°C under prolonged solar heating—and minor model divergences in GFS/ECMWF ensembles on boundary layer moisture. Updated bureau guidance expected April 14 evening may sharpen odds as resolution nears.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,493
End Date
Apr 15, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 29°C (31% implied probability) as Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 15, closely trailed by 30°C (24.5%) and 28°C (19.5%), reflecting the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's recent forecasts projecting afternoon peaks of 29-30°C amid southerly winds, high pressure, and limited cloud cover. Recent days, including April 13-14 highs near 29°C, have reinforced this warm pattern above April's climatological average of 26°C, boosted by urban heat island effects in the densely built city. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing—earlier onset could suppress maxima to 28°C via cooler marine air advection, while delays enable 30-31°C under prolonged solar heating—and minor model divergences in GFS/ECMWF ensembles on boundary layer moisture. Updated bureau guidance expected April 14 evening may sharpen odds as resolution nears.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,493
End Date
Apr 15, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "29°C" at 31%, followed by "30°C" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 15?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 15?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 15?" is "29°C" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30°C" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.