Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40.5% implied probability for Helsinki's highest temperature reaching 15°C or higher on April 15, reflecting ensemble forecast uncertainty from ECMWF and GFS models that show potential southerly wind shifts advecting milder Atlantic air amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over Scandinavia. The Finnish Meteorological Institute's latest update as of April 13 projects a more conservative daytime high of 11–12°C under clear skies, light 0–3 m/s winds, and low precipitation risk, following today's observed maximum of 11°C—warmer than the April climatological average of 7°C. Probabilities cluster tightly around 11–15°C (19–40.5%), capturing spring variability where solar heating and minimal cloud cover could exceed official guidance; watch evening 12Z model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Helsinki on April 15?
Highest temperature in Helsinki on April 15?
15°C or higher 39%
14°C 23%
13°C 15%
12°C 9%
5°C or below
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
3%
12°C
9%
13°C
15%
14°C
28%
15°C or higher
39%
15°C or higher 39%
14°C 23%
13°C 15%
12°C 9%
5°C or below
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
3%
12°C
9%
13°C
15%
14°C
28%
15°C or higher
39%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 12:36 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40.5% implied probability for Helsinki's highest temperature reaching 15°C or higher on April 15, reflecting ensemble forecast uncertainty from ECMWF and GFS models that show potential southerly wind shifts advecting milder Atlantic air amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over Scandinavia. The Finnish Meteorological Institute's latest update as of April 13 projects a more conservative daytime high of 11–12°C under clear skies, light 0–3 m/s winds, and low precipitation risk, following today's observed maximum of 11°C—warmer than the April climatological average of 7°C. Probabilities cluster tightly around 11–15°C (19–40.5%), capturing spring variability where solar heating and minimal cloud cover could exceed official guidance; watch evening 12Z model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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