Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Taipei's highest temperature on April 15, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 29–32°C (19–22.5%) despite the Central Weather Administration's latest forecast projecting a daytime high of just 22–26°C under partly clear skies with possible showers. This divergence stems from a recent heatwave—33°C recorded on April 11 and near-certainty today (April 13)—fueled by high pressure and subsidence, contrasted by an approaching frontal boundary expected to usher cooler, moister air from the north. Ensemble model spreads (GFS, ECMWF analogs) show variability in front timing and intensity, with urban heat island effects and sea breezes potentially boosting peaks by 1–3°C; watch CWA updates twice daily for refinements ahead of resolution based on official station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on April 15?
Highest temperature in Taipei on April 15?
29°C 23%
32°C 21%
30°C 21%
31°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Apr 15, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
3%
28°C
7%
29°C
23%
30°C
21%
31°C
21%
32°C
21%
33°C
12%
34°C
3%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 23%
32°C 21%
30°C 21%
31°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Apr 15, 2026
25°C or below
$390 Vol.
1%
26°C
$388 Vol.
2%
27°C
$421 Vol.
3%
28°C
$513 Vol.
7%
29°C
$227 Vol.
23%
30°C
$176 Vol.
21%
31°C
$327 Vol.
21%
32°C
$308 Vol.
21%
33°C
$193 Vol.
12%
34°C
$220 Vol.
3%
35°C or higher
$4,920 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Taipei's highest temperature on April 15, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 29–32°C (19–22.5%) despite the Central Weather Administration's latest forecast projecting a daytime high of just 22–26°C under partly clear skies with possible showers. This divergence stems from a recent heatwave—33°C recorded on April 11 and near-certainty today (April 13)—fueled by high pressure and subsidence, contrasted by an approaching frontal boundary expected to usher cooler, moister air from the north. Ensemble model spreads (GFS, ECMWF analogs) show variability in front timing and intensity, with urban heat island effects and sea breezes potentially boosting peaks by 1–3°C; watch CWA updates twice daily for refinements ahead of resolution based on official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Volume
$8,077End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Taipei's highest temperature on April 15, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 29–32°C (19–22.5%) despite the Central Weather Administration's latest forecast projecting a daytime high of just 22–26°C under partly clear skies with possible showers. This divergence stems from a recent heatwave—33°C recorded on April 11 and near-certainty today (April 13)—fueled by high pressure and subsidence, contrasted by an approaching frontal boundary expected to usher cooler, moister air from the north. Ensemble model spreads (GFS, ECMWF analogs) show variability in front timing and intensity, with urban heat island effects and sea breezes potentially boosting peaks by 1–3°C; watch CWA updates twice daily for refinements ahead of resolution based on official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,077End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Taipei's highest temperature on April 15, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 29–32°C (19–22.5%) despite the Central Weather Administration's latest forecast projecting a daytime high of just 22–26°C under partly clear skies with possible showers. This divergence stems from a recent heatwave—33°C recorded on April 11 and near-certainty today (April 13)—fueled by high pressure and subsidence, contrasted by an approaching frontal boundary expected to usher cooler, moister air from the north. Ensemble model spreads (GFS, ECMWF analogs) show variability in front timing and intensity, with urban heat island effects and sea breezes potentially boosting peaks by 1–3°C; watch CWA updates twice daily for refinements ahead of resolution based on official station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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