Trader consensus on Polymarket closely tracks the latest forecasts from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) and Climatempo, which project São Paulo's highest temperature on April 15 at 27–28°C under partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds and no precipitation. This tight clustering around 26–28°C reflects stabilization after a cold front last week dropped maxima from early-April heat above 30°C, now moderated by autumnal high-pressure systems and moderate humidity (80–90%). Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover in ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS, which could shave 1–2°C via reduced insolation, versus urban heat island effects boosting peaks; historical April averages sit at 24–25°C, but above-normal conditions prevail. New model runs expected by April 14 may refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 15?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 15?
28°C 30%
27°C 30%
26°C 19%
29°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Apr 15, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
4%
25°C
7%
26°C
19%
27°C
30%
28°C
30%
29°C
10%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
28°C 30%
27°C 30%
26°C 19%
29°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Apr 15, 2026
22°C or below
$404 Vol.
1%
23°C
$578 Vol.
1%
24°C
$379 Vol.
4%
25°C
$259 Vol.
7%
26°C
$343 Vol.
19%
27°C
$405 Vol.
30%
28°C
$558 Vol.
30%
29°C
$334 Vol.
10%
30°C
$175 Vol.
4%
31°C
$457 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$235 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely tracks the latest forecasts from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) and Climatempo, which project São Paulo's highest temperature on April 15 at 27–28°C under partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds and no precipitation. This tight clustering around 26–28°C reflects stabilization after a cold front last week dropped maxima from early-April heat above 30°C, now moderated by autumnal high-pressure systems and moderate humidity (80–90%). Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover in ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS, which could shave 1–2°C via reduced insolation, versus urban heat island effects boosting peaks; historical April averages sit at 24–25°C, but above-normal conditions prevail. New model runs expected by April 14 may refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$4,127End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely tracks the latest forecasts from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) and Climatempo, which project São Paulo's highest temperature on April 15 at 27–28°C under partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds and no precipitation. This tight clustering around 26–28°C reflects stabilization after a cold front last week dropped maxima from early-April heat above 30°C, now moderated by autumnal high-pressure systems and moderate humidity (80–90%). Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover in ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS, which could shave 1–2°C via reduced insolation, versus urban heat island effects boosting peaks; historical April averages sit at 24–25°C, but above-normal conditions prevail. New model runs expected by April 14 may refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,127End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely tracks the latest forecasts from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) and Climatempo, which project São Paulo's highest temperature on April 15 at 27–28°C under partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds and no precipitation. This tight clustering around 26–28°C reflects stabilization after a cold front last week dropped maxima from early-April heat above 30°C, now moderated by autumnal high-pressure systems and moderate humidity (80–90%). Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover in ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS, which could shave 1–2°C via reduced insolation, versus urban heat island effects boosting peaks; historical April averages sit at 24–25°C, but above-normal conditions prevail. New model runs expected by April 14 may refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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