Latest guidance from global forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, projects Shanghai's highest temperature on April 15 at around 19°C, reflecting trader sentiment with 33.5% implied probability for 20°C or higher, 32% for 19°C, and 21% for 18°C at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station. This clustering stems from typical mid-April conditions—historical highs averaging 19–20°C amid East Asian spring transition—with recent days featuring upper-teen Celsius readings under variable northerly flows and scattered clouds moderating peak heating. Key differentiators include boundary-layer mixing, sea-breeze effects, and potential frontal influences; model spreads of 1–2°C highlight inherent short-range uncertainty. Watch for China Meteorological Administration updates and 00Z/12Z model runs over the next 24–48 hours, which could sharpen resolution odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 15?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 15?
20°C or higher 32%
19°C 32%
18°C 21%
17°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Apr 15, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
6%
18°C
21%
19°C
32%
20°C or higher
32%
20°C or higher 32%
19°C 32%
18°C 21%
17°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Apr 15, 2026
10°C or below
$387 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$3,913 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$262 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$191 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$486 Vol.
1%
15°C
$807 Vol.
1%
16°C
$114 Vol.
3%
17°C
$463 Vol.
6%
18°C
$75 Vol.
21%
19°C
$197 Vol.
32%
20°C or higher
$343 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest guidance from global forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, projects Shanghai's highest temperature on April 15 at around 19°C, reflecting trader sentiment with 33.5% implied probability for 20°C or higher, 32% for 19°C, and 21% for 18°C at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station. This clustering stems from typical mid-April conditions—historical highs averaging 19–20°C amid East Asian spring transition—with recent days featuring upper-teen Celsius readings under variable northerly flows and scattered clouds moderating peak heating. Key differentiators include boundary-layer mixing, sea-breeze effects, and potential frontal influences; model spreads of 1–2°C highlight inherent short-range uncertainty. Watch for China Meteorological Administration updates and 00Z/12Z model runs over the next 24–48 hours, which could sharpen resolution odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$7,237End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest guidance from global forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, projects Shanghai's highest temperature on April 15 at around 19°C, reflecting trader sentiment with 33.5% implied probability for 20°C or higher, 32% for 19°C, and 21% for 18°C at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station. This clustering stems from typical mid-April conditions—historical highs averaging 19–20°C amid East Asian spring transition—with recent days featuring upper-teen Celsius readings under variable northerly flows and scattered clouds moderating peak heating. Key differentiators include boundary-layer mixing, sea-breeze effects, and potential frontal influences; model spreads of 1–2°C highlight inherent short-range uncertainty. Watch for China Meteorological Administration updates and 00Z/12Z model runs over the next 24–48 hours, which could sharpen resolution odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,237End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest guidance from global forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, projects Shanghai's highest temperature on April 15 at around 19°C, reflecting trader sentiment with 33.5% implied probability for 20°C or higher, 32% for 19°C, and 21% for 18°C at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station. This clustering stems from typical mid-April conditions—historical highs averaging 19–20°C amid East Asian spring transition—with recent days featuring upper-teen Celsius readings under variable northerly flows and scattered clouds moderating peak heating. Key differentiators include boundary-layer mixing, sea-breeze effects, and potential frontal influences; model spreads of 1–2°C highlight inherent short-range uncertainty. Watch for China Meteorological Administration updates and 00Z/12Z model runs over the next 24–48 hours, which could sharpen resolution odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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