Latest forecast consensus from global models like GFS and ECMWF positions 32°C or higher (74.5% market-implied probability) as the leading outcome for Panama City's highest temperature on April 15 at Marcos A. Gelabert International Airport, reflecting persistent subtropical ridging aloft and sea surface temperatures above 28°C fueling daytime peaks near 33-34°C. Observations over the past week show consistent highs exceeding 32°C amid low humidity, light northerly winds, and minimal convection during the late dry season transition. Lower outcomes around 30°C (29.5%) or 22°C or below (25.0%) account for ensemble spread introducing possible afternoon thunderstorms capping heating. New model runs expected overnight could refine trader sentiment before the typical mid-afternoon maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Panama City on April 15?
Highest temperature in Panama City on April 15?
32°C or higher 76%
31°C 9%
30°C 6%
29°C 3.5%
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
4%
30°C
6%
31°C
9%
32°C or higher
76%
32°C or higher 76%
31°C 9%
30°C 6%
29°C 3.5%
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
4%
30°C
6%
31°C
9%
32°C or higher
76%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 12:36 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast consensus from global models like GFS and ECMWF positions 32°C or higher (74.5% market-implied probability) as the leading outcome for Panama City's highest temperature on April 15 at Marcos A. Gelabert International Airport, reflecting persistent subtropical ridging aloft and sea surface temperatures above 28°C fueling daytime peaks near 33-34°C. Observations over the past week show consistent highs exceeding 32°C amid low humidity, light northerly winds, and minimal convection during the late dry season transition. Lower outcomes around 30°C (29.5%) or 22°C or below (25.0%) account for ensemble spread introducing possible afternoon thunderstorms capping heating. New model runs expected overnight could refine trader sentiment before the typical mid-afternoon maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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