Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Lagos's highest temperature on April 14, with 33°C slightly leading at 34.5% implied probability over 32°C at 29.5%, driven by recent NiMet and global models like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime peaks of 32–34°C amid the transition to wet season. Early April saw highs up to 35.5°C on the 10th and 34°C on the 11th, but increased convective activity—isolated thunderstorms and cloud cover—could suppress maxima via shading and evaporative cooling, while persistent sea breezes from the Atlantic and urban heat island effects in Lagos favor the warmer outcomes. Key differentiators include afternoon precipitation timing and cloud fraction; clearer skies tilt toward 33–34°C, denser overcast toward 32°C or below. NiMet's next bulletin and real-time observations will refine this before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lagos on April 14?
Highest temperature in Lagos on April 14?
33°C 38%
34°C 38%
32°C 35%
31°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Apr 14, 2026
28°C or below
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
5%
31°C
17%
32°C
32%
33°C
31%
34°C
28%
35°C
7%
36°C
5%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
1%
33°C 38%
34°C 38%
32°C 35%
31°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Apr 14, 2026
28°C or below
$447 Vol.
1%
29°C
$557 Vol.
3%
30°C
$200 Vol.
5%
31°C
$16 Vol.
17%
32°C
$15 Vol.
32%
33°C
$19 Vol.
31%
34°C
$16 Vol.
28%
35°C
$288 Vol.
7%
36°C
$116 Vol.
5%
37°C
$419 Vol.
1%
38°C or higher
$661 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Lagos's highest temperature on April 14, with 33°C slightly leading at 34.5% implied probability over 32°C at 29.5%, driven by recent NiMet and global models like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime peaks of 32–34°C amid the transition to wet season. Early April saw highs up to 35.5°C on the 10th and 34°C on the 11th, but increased convective activity—isolated thunderstorms and cloud cover—could suppress maxima via shading and evaporative cooling, while persistent sea breezes from the Atlantic and urban heat island effects in Lagos favor the warmer outcomes. Key differentiators include afternoon precipitation timing and cloud fraction; clearer skies tilt toward 33–34°C, denser overcast toward 32°C or below. NiMet's next bulletin and real-time observations will refine this before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 12, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volume
$2,755End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Apr 12, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Lagos's highest temperature on April 14, with 33°C slightly leading at 34.5% implied probability over 32°C at 29.5%, driven by recent NiMet and global models like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime peaks of 32–34°C amid the transition to wet season. Early April saw highs up to 35.5°C on the 10th and 34°C on the 11th, but increased convective activity—isolated thunderstorms and cloud cover—could suppress maxima via shading and evaporative cooling, while persistent sea breezes from the Atlantic and urban heat island effects in Lagos favor the warmer outcomes. Key differentiators include afternoon precipitation timing and cloud fraction; clearer skies tilt toward 33–34°C, denser overcast toward 32°C or below. NiMet's next bulletin and real-time observations will refine this before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,755End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Apr 12, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Lagos's highest temperature on April 14, with 33°C slightly leading at 34.5% implied probability over 32°C at 29.5%, driven by recent NiMet and global models like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime peaks of 32–34°C amid the transition to wet season. Early April saw highs up to 35.5°C on the 10th and 34°C on the 11th, but increased convective activity—isolated thunderstorms and cloud cover—could suppress maxima via shading and evaporative cooling, while persistent sea breezes from the Atlantic and urban heat island effects in Lagos favor the warmer outcomes. Key differentiators include afternoon precipitation timing and cloud fraction; clearer skies tilt toward 33–34°C, denser overcast toward 32°C or below. NiMet's next bulletin and real-time observations will refine this before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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