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Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 15?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 15?

Apr 13

Apr 14

Apr 15

Apr 13

Apr 14

Apr 15

13°C 29%

14°C 27%

12°C 24%

15°C 9.4%

Polymarket
NEW

13°C 29%

14°C 27%

12°C 24%

15°C 9.4%

Polymarket
NEW

10°C or below

$252 Vol.

2%

11°C

$334 Vol.

3%

12°C

$123 Vol.

24%

13°C

$296 Vol.

29%

14°C

$238 Vol.

27%

15°C

$175 Vol.

9%

16°C

$223 Vol.

2%

17°C

$345 Vol.

1%

18°C

$403 Vol.

2%

19°C

$219 Vol.

1%

20°C or higher

$1,352 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 12°C (31.5%), 13°C (28.0%), and 14°C (27.0%) reflects forecast model consensus for subdued highs in Istanbul on April 15, shaped by persistent northerly winds ushering cool continental air and partial cloud cover limiting solar insolation. Recent Turkish State Meteorological Service and AccuWeather updates project daytime maxima near 15-17°C, but traders weigh recent observations of lows around 5-10°C and overcast conditions through April 13, discounting warmer outcomes amid model spread of 2-3°C from ECMWF and GFS ensembles. Key differentiators include exact wind speeds (NE 10 mph) and cloud opacity, with new hourly forecasts and ensemble runs tomorrow poised to sharpen resolution based on official station data. Historical April averages hover at 16°C, underscoring spring variability.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,953
End Date
Apr 15, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 12°C (31.5%), 13°C (28.0%), and 14°C (27.0%) reflects forecast model consensus for subdued highs in Istanbul on April 15, shaped by persistent northerly winds ushering cool continental air and partial cloud cover limiting solar insolation. Recent Turkish State Meteorological Service and AccuWeather updates project daytime maxima near 15-17°C, but traders weigh recent observations of lows around 5-10°C and overcast conditions through April 13, discounting warmer outcomes amid model spread of 2-3°C from ECMWF and GFS ensembles. Key differentiators include exact wind speeds (NE 10 mph) and cloud opacity, with new hourly forecasts and ensemble runs tomorrow poised to sharpen resolution based on official station data. Historical April averages hover at 16°C, underscoring spring variability.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,953
End Date
Apr 15, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "13°C" at 28%, followed by "14°C" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 15?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 15?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 15?" is "13°C" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "14°C" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.