Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting a tight 12–15°C range for the highest temperature at Istanbul Airport (LTBA) on April 14, with 13°C (39%) edging 14°C (30.5%) amid overcast conditions and persistent northerly flows advecting cool continental air. Recent developments include a multi-day cool spell, as April 13 forecasts clustered around 11–14°C following partly cloudy skies and highs near 12°C on April 12, well below the mid-April climatological average of 16°C. Differentiating factors hinge on model disagreements over afternoon cloud cover timing and boundary layer mixing, which could suppress or allow brief peaks above 14°C. Evening updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and NOAA may refine probabilities before resolution based on official NOAA observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 14?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 14?
13°C 40%
14°C 28%
12°C 15%
15°C 9%
NEW
$10,566 Vol.
NEW
$10,566 Vol.
Apr 14, 2026
10°C or below
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
15%
13°C
40%
14°C
28%
15°C
9%
16°C
3%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
<1%
13°C 40%
14°C 28%
12°C 15%
15°C 9%
NEW
$10,566 Vol.
NEW
$10,566 Vol.
Apr 14, 2026
10°C or below
$814 Vol.
1%
11°C
$607 Vol.
3%
12°C
$977 Vol.
15%
13°C
$435 Vol.
40%
14°C
$330 Vol.
28%
15°C
$684 Vol.
9%
16°C
$1,888 Vol.
3%
17°C
$2,308 Vol.
2%
18°C
$1,871 Vol.
1%
19°C
$644 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$332 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting a tight 12–15°C range for the highest temperature at Istanbul Airport (LTBA) on April 14, with 13°C (39%) edging 14°C (30.5%) amid overcast conditions and persistent northerly flows advecting cool continental air. Recent developments include a multi-day cool spell, as April 13 forecasts clustered around 11–14°C following partly cloudy skies and highs near 12°C on April 12, well below the mid-April climatological average of 16°C. Differentiating factors hinge on model disagreements over afternoon cloud cover timing and boundary layer mixing, which could suppress or allow brief peaks above 14°C. Evening updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and NOAA may refine probabilities before resolution based on official NOAA observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 12, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volume
$10,566End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Apr 12, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting a tight 12–15°C range for the highest temperature at Istanbul Airport (LTBA) on April 14, with 13°C (39%) edging 14°C (30.5%) amid overcast conditions and persistent northerly flows advecting cool continental air. Recent developments include a multi-day cool spell, as April 13 forecasts clustered around 11–14°C following partly cloudy skies and highs near 12°C on April 12, well below the mid-April climatological average of 16°C. Differentiating factors hinge on model disagreements over afternoon cloud cover timing and boundary layer mixing, which could suppress or allow brief peaks above 14°C. Evening updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and NOAA may refine probabilities before resolution based on official NOAA observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,566End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Apr 12, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting a tight 12–15°C range for the highest temperature at Istanbul Airport (LTBA) on April 14, with 13°C (39%) edging 14°C (30.5%) amid overcast conditions and persistent northerly flows advecting cool continental air. Recent developments include a multi-day cool spell, as April 13 forecasts clustered around 11–14°C following partly cloudy skies and highs near 12°C on April 12, well below the mid-April climatological average of 16°C. Differentiating factors hinge on model disagreements over afternoon cloud cover timing and boundary layer mixing, which could suppress or allow brief peaks above 14°C. Evening updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and NOAA may refine probabilities before resolution based on official NOAA observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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