Texas Senate predictions & odds

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Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

56%

Democratic Party

$2M Vol.

$90.6K today

$339K Liq.

28

Ends in 7 months

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Which party will win the House in 2026?

86%

Democratic Party

$4M Vol.

$529K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

61%

Ken Paxton

$15M Vol.

$303K Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Texas Senate Election Matchup

Texas Senate Election Matchup

60%

Talarico & Paxton

$661K Vol.

$97.3K Liq.

3

Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

29%

Paxton 9%+

$51.0K Vol.

$110K Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff

Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff

24%

2.4–2.7M

$34.5K Vol.

$13.0K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Texas Senate Election Winner

Texas Senate Election Winner

57%

Republican

$175K Vol.

$71.9K Liq.

9

Ends in 7 months

Will Ken Paxton drop out?

Will Ken Paxton drop out?

10%

$5.1K Vol.

$12.3K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Nothing Ever Happens: March

Nothing Ever Happens: March

63%

Nothing

$330K Vol.

$14.0K Liq.

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

74%

$2.2K Vol.

$10.8K Liq.

2

Ends in 7 months

Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winner

Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winner

77%

Mayes Middleton

$3.6K Vol.

$7.8K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

26%

≤47

$2M Vol.

$204K Liq.

6

Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner

Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner

66%

Julia Letlow

$191K Vol.

$145K Liq.

2

Ends in about 1 month

Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?

Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?

44%

$277 Vol.

$734 Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

TX-21 House Election Winner

TX-21 House Election Winner

84%

Republican Party

$27.1K Vol.

$35.6K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

TX-12 House Election Winner

TX-12 House Election Winner

84%

Republican Party

$6.4K Vol.

$39.9K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

TX-10 House Election Winner

TX-10 House Election Winner

83%

Republican Party

$13.2K Vol.

$35.2K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

TX-01 House Election Winner

TX-01 House Election Winner

93%

Republican Party

$1.3K Vol.

$44.6K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

TX-11 House Election Winner

TX-11 House Election Winner

91%

Republican Party

$23.5K Vol.

$60.5K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

TX-02 House Election Winner

TX-02 House Election Winner

89%

Republican Party

$3.1K Vol.

$35.8K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 110 active markets for Texas Senate that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Which party will win the Senate in 2026?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $25.3M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will Ken Paxton drop out?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 61% chance to Ken Paxton. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

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