Recent polls, including a RealClearPolling average of Paxton +5.5 points and surveys from Quantus Insights (+8) and GQR (+5), have propelled trader consensus toward a Paxton victory by 9% or more at 30% implied probability in the May 26 Texas Senate Republican primary runoff, reflecting his edge among enthusiastic base voters in low-turnout contests. Following the March 3 primary where incumbent Sen. John Cornyn edged Paxton 43%-41% amid a wide-open field with Rep. Wesley Hunt third, Paxton's populist attacks on Cornyn's bipartisan record have consolidated Trump-aligned support, amplified by a strong CPAC straw poll win. Cornyn's fundraising strength and establishment endorsements provide a path to close the gap, especially if President Trump endorses him before early voting, while Paxton's higher voter motivation could widen margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPaxton 9%+ 29.5%
Paxton 6–9% 15%
Cornyn 9%+ 14%
Cornyn <3% 12.0%
$50,559 Vol.
$50,559 Vol.
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
30%
Paxton 6–9%
15%
Paxton 3–6%
11%
Paxton <3%
10%
Cornyn <3%
12%
Cornyn 3–6%
6%
Cornyn 6–9%
3%
Cornyn 9%+
14%
Paxton 9%+ 29.5%
Paxton 6–9% 15%
Cornyn 9%+ 14%
Cornyn <3% 12.0%
$50,559 Vol.
$50,559 Vol.
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
$10,003 Vol.
30%
Paxton 6–9%
$5,461 Vol.
15%
Paxton 3–6%
$4,757 Vol.
11%
Paxton <3%
$6,343 Vol.
10%
Cornyn <3%
$3,867 Vol.
12%
Cornyn 3–6%
$4,330 Vol.
6%
Cornyn 6–9%
$4,962 Vol.
3%
Cornyn 9%+
$10,836 Vol.
14%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls, including a RealClearPolling average of Paxton +5.5 points and surveys from Quantus Insights (+8) and GQR (+5), have propelled trader consensus toward a Paxton victory by 9% or more at 30% implied probability in the May 26 Texas Senate Republican primary runoff, reflecting his edge among enthusiastic base voters in low-turnout contests. Following the March 3 primary where incumbent Sen. John Cornyn edged Paxton 43%-41% amid a wide-open field with Rep. Wesley Hunt third, Paxton's populist attacks on Cornyn's bipartisan record have consolidated Trump-aligned support, amplified by a strong CPAC straw poll win. Cornyn's fundraising strength and establishment endorsements provide a path to close the gap, especially if President Trump endorses him before early voting, while Paxton's higher voter motivation could widen margins.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$50,559End Date
May 25, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls, including a RealClearPolling average of Paxton +5.5 points and surveys from Quantus Insights (+8) and GQR (+5), have propelled trader consensus toward a Paxton victory by 9% or more at 30% implied probability in the May 26 Texas Senate Republican primary runoff, reflecting his edge among enthusiastic base voters in low-turnout contests. Following the March 3 primary where incumbent Sen. John Cornyn edged Paxton 43%-41% amid a wide-open field with Rep. Wesley Hunt third, Paxton's populist attacks on Cornyn's bipartisan record have consolidated Trump-aligned support, amplified by a strong CPAC straw poll win. Cornyn's fundraising strength and establishment endorsements provide a path to close the gap, especially if President Trump endorses him before early voting, while Paxton's higher voter motivation could widen margins.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$50,559End Date
May 25, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including a RealClearPolling average of Paxton +5.5 points and surveys from Quantus Insights (+8) and GQR (+5), have propelled trader consensus toward a Paxton victory by 9% or more at 30% implied probability in the May 26 Texas Senate Republican primary runoff, reflecting his edge among enthusiastic base voters in low-turnout contests. Following the March 3 primary where incumbent Sen. John Cornyn edged Paxton 43%-41% amid a wide-open field with Rep. Wesley Hunt third, Paxton's populist attacks on Cornyn's bipartisan record have consolidated Trump-aligned support, amplified by a strong CPAC straw poll win. Cornyn's fundraising strength and establishment endorsements provide a path to close the gap, especially if President Trump endorses him before early voting, while Paxton's higher voter motivation could widen margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions