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Politics·US Election

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

May 26

May 26

Ken Paxton 61%

John Cornyn 39%

Dawn Buckingham <1%

Beth Van Duyne <1%

Polymarket

$15,328,777 Vol.

Ken Paxton 61%

John Cornyn 39%

Dawn Buckingham <1%

Beth Van Duyne <1%

Polymarket

$15,328,777 Vol.

Market icon

Ken Paxton

$4,184,856 Vol.

61%

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John Cornyn

$3,113,862 Vol.

39%

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Dawn Buckingham

$918,022 Vol.

<1%

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Beth Van Duyne

$5,350,753 Vol.

<1%

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Wesley Hunt

$1,761,284 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. Recent polls showing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leading incumbent Senator John Cornyn by double digits in the GOP Senate primary runoff have driven trader consensus to price Paxton at 60.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting his strong appeal among the party's hard-right base amid criticisms of Cornyn as insufficiently conservative on issues like gun rights and border security. Neither candidate secured a majority in the March 3 primary—Paxton edged Cornyn slightly—forcing a May 26 runoff after the filing deadline passed without withdrawals. Paxton's decision to forgo AG reelection bolsters his full-commitment narrative, while Cornyn leverages incumbency and establishment fundraising despite heavy primary spending. Other candidates like Dawn Buckingham, Beth Van Duyne, and Wesley Hunt trail at negligible odds after failing to advance. Absent a late endorsement shift, such as from former President Trump, polls favor Paxton continuing his momentum.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$15,328,777
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 10, 2025, 5:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. Recent polls showing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leading incumbent Senator John Cornyn by double digits in the GOP Senate primary runoff have driven trader consensus to price Paxton at 60.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting his strong appeal among the party's hard-right base amid criticisms of Cornyn as insufficiently conservative on issues like gun rights and border security. Neither candidate secured a majority in the March 3 primary—Paxton edged Cornyn slightly—forcing a May 26 runoff after the filing deadline passed without withdrawals. Paxton's decision to forgo AG reelection bolsters his full-commitment narrative, while Cornyn leverages incumbency and establishment fundraising despite heavy primary spending. Other candidates like Dawn Buckingham, Beth Van Duyne, and Wesley Hunt trail at negligible odds after failing to advance. Absent a late endorsement shift, such as from former President Trump, polls favor Paxton continuing his momentum.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$15,328,777
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 10, 2025, 5:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ken Paxton" at 61%, followed by "John Cornyn" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $15.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Ken Paxton" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Cornyn" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.