Recent George Mason University/Washington Post polling from April 3 shows likely voters narrowly backing passage of Virginia's constitutional amendment to allow legislative congressional redistricting, 52% yes to 47% no, driving trader consensus toward tight victory margins like 3-6% and 6-9%. Early voting turnout has surged to over 924,000 ballots as of April 13, with initial leads in Republican-leaning districts eroded by gains in Democratic strongholds such as congressional districts 8, 10, and 11. High-profile mobilization—including House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries' canvassing—counters GOP opposition ads and mailers, keeping probabilities clustered. Final separation could emerge from differential turnout through April 18 early voting or Election Day April 21.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVirginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Pass 3-6% 26%
Pass 6-9% 20%
Pass 9-12% 13%
Pass <3% 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 21, 2026
Pass 15%+
8%
Pass 12-15%
11%
Pass 9-12%
13%
Pass 6-9%
25%
Pass 3-6%
26%
Pass <3%
18%
No Pass
9%
Pass 3-6% 26%
Pass 6-9% 20%
Pass 9-12% 13%
Pass <3% 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 21, 2026
Pass 15%+
$1,033 Vol.
8%
Pass 12-15%
$93 Vol.
11%
Pass 9-12%
$555 Vol.
13%
Pass 6-9%
$38 Vol.
25%
Pass 3-6%
$120 Vol.
26%
Pass <3%
$37 Vol.
18%
No Pass
$2,903 Vol.
9%
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent George Mason University/Washington Post polling from April 3 shows likely voters narrowly backing passage of Virginia's constitutional amendment to allow legislative congressional redistricting, 52% yes to 47% no, driving trader consensus toward tight victory margins like 3-6% and 6-9%. Early voting turnout has surged to over 924,000 ballots as of April 13, with initial leads in Republican-leaning districts eroded by gains in Democratic strongholds such as congressional districts 8, 10, and 11. High-profile mobilization—including House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries' canvassing—counters GOP opposition ads and mailers, keeping probabilities clustered. Final separation could emerge from differential turnout through April 18 early voting or Election Day April 21.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
Volume
$4,777End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent George Mason University/Washington Post polling from April 3 shows likely voters narrowly backing passage of Virginia's constitutional amendment to allow legislative congressional redistricting, 52% yes to 47% no, driving trader consensus toward tight victory margins like 3-6% and 6-9%. Early voting turnout has surged to over 924,000 ballots as of April 13, with initial leads in Republican-leaning districts eroded by gains in Democratic strongholds such as congressional districts 8, 10, and 11. High-profile mobilization—including House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries' canvassing—counters GOP opposition ads and mailers, keeping probabilities clustered. Final separation could emerge from differential turnout through April 18 early voting or Election Day April 21.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Volume
$4,777End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent George Mason University/Washington Post polling from April 3 shows likely voters narrowly backing passage of Virginia's constitutional amendment to allow legislative congressional redistricting, 52% yes to 47% no, driving trader consensus toward tight victory margins like 3-6% and 6-9%. Early voting turnout has surged to over 924,000 ballots as of April 13, with initial leads in Republican-leaning districts eroded by gains in Democratic strongholds such as congressional districts 8, 10, and 11. High-profile mobilization—including House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries' canvassing—counters GOP opposition ads and mailers, keeping probabilities clustered. Final separation could emerge from differential turnout through April 18 early voting or Election Day April 21.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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