Recent polls from Abacus Data, Ipsos, and Spark Advocacy, fielded April 5-6, showed the Liberal Party's national vote share holding steady at 44-46% amid a double-digit lead over Conservatives, yet 338Canada's April 12 update revised Liberal seat projections downward to 210 (range 178-251) from prior estimates, reflecting a one-point national dip and subtle regional swings in key battlegrounds like Ontario and Quebec. This minor contraction, despite 98% majority odds, aligns with trader consensus on "Down," as the model aggregates emphasize stability over surge. By-elections today in three ridings could bolster actual seats, but the market tracks polling trends only, with no major catalysts reversing the week's tilt.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLiberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?
Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?
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$29 Vol.
$29 Vol.
Up
$29 Vol.
$29 Vol.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls from Abacus Data, Ipsos, and Spark Advocacy, fielded April 5-6, showed the Liberal Party's national vote share holding steady at 44-46% amid a double-digit lead over Conservatives, yet 338Canada's April 12 update revised Liberal seat projections downward to 210 (range 178-251) from prior estimates, reflecting a one-point national dip and subtle regional swings in key battlegrounds like Ontario and Quebec. This minor contraction, despite 98% majority odds, aligns with trader consensus on "Down," as the model aggregates emphasize stability over surge. By-elections today in three ridings could bolster actual seats, but the market tracks polling trends only, with no major catalysts reversing the week's tilt.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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