Turkish traders price an 81% chance against advancing a new constitution in 2026, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, parliamentary votes, or referendum proposals through mid-April despite earlier momentum. The ruling AKP party's February roadmap for constitutional reform has stalled amid focus on unrelated legislation, including social media regulations and maternity leave extensions, while Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş recently emphasized constitutional provisions for by-elections rather than overhaul. The Milli Dayanisma Commission’s late February report prompted targeted infaz law tweaks set for April but no full rewrite, with opposition CHP and DEM Party facing internal pressures amid a suspended Kurdish peace process. Erdogan's term runs to 2028, diminishing urgency for term-limit changes, leaving trader consensus skeptical absent fresh catalysts like coalition negotiations or snap developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkish traders price an 81% chance against advancing a new constitution in 2026, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, parliamentary votes, or referendum proposals through mid-April despite earlier momentum. The ruling AKP party's February roadmap for constitutional reform has stalled amid focus on unrelated legislation, including social media regulations and maternity leave extensions, while Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş recently emphasized constitutional provisions for by-elections rather than overhaul. The Milli Dayanisma Commission’s late February report prompted targeted infaz law tweaks set for April but no full rewrite, with opposition CHP and DEM Party facing internal pressures amid a suspended Kurdish peace process. Erdogan's term runs to 2028, diminishing urgency for term-limit changes, leaving trader consensus skeptical absent fresh catalysts like coalition negotiations or snap developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$196End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkish traders price an 81% chance against advancing a new constitution in 2026, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, parliamentary votes, or referendum proposals through mid-April despite earlier momentum. The ruling AKP party's February roadmap for constitutional reform has stalled amid focus on unrelated legislation, including social media regulations and maternity leave extensions, while Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş recently emphasized constitutional provisions for by-elections rather than overhaul. The Milli Dayanisma Commission’s late February report prompted targeted infaz law tweaks set for April but no full rewrite, with opposition CHP and DEM Party facing internal pressures amid a suspended Kurdish peace process. Erdogan's term runs to 2028, diminishing urgency for term-limit changes, leaving trader consensus skeptical absent fresh catalysts like coalition negotiations or snap developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$196End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkish traders price an 81% chance against advancing a new constitution in 2026, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, parliamentary votes, or referendum proposals through mid-April despite earlier momentum. The ruling AKP party's February roadmap for constitutional reform has stalled amid focus on unrelated legislation, including social media regulations and maternity leave extensions, while Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş recently emphasized constitutional provisions for by-elections rather than overhaul. The Milli Dayanisma Commission’s late February report prompted targeted infaz law tweaks set for April but no full rewrite, with opposition CHP and DEM Party facing internal pressures amid a suspended Kurdish peace process. Erdogan's term runs to 2028, diminishing urgency for term-limit changes, leaving trader consensus skeptical absent fresh catalysts like coalition negotiations or snap developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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