Hezbollah predictions & odds

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Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

96%

April 30

$279K Vol.

$137K today

$36.0K Liq.

38

Israel military action against Beirut on...?

Israel military action against Beirut on...?

100%

April 9

$347K Vol.

$110K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?

Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?

32%

$54.5K Vol.

$10.4K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by...?

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by...?

63%

June 30

$83.1K Vol.

$26.6K Liq.

5

Ends in 3 months

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

37%

$334K Vol.

$13.7K Liq.

41

Ends in 3 months

Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?

Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?

4%

April 30

$128K Vol.

$19.2K Liq.

3

Ends in 16 days

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

56%

June 30

$3M Vol.

$306K today

$134K Liq.

255

Ends in 3 months

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

25%

December 31

$941K Vol.

$34.6K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

96%

December 31

$39M Vol.

$2M today

$771K Liq.

2,019

Iran military action against ___ by April 30?

Iran military action against ___ by April 30?

100%

Kuwait

$1M Vol.

$481K today

$409K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

48%

December 31

$615K Vol.

$133K today

$83.7K Liq.

7

Ends in 9 months

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

22%

June 30, 2026

$645K Vol.

$33.3K Liq.

43

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

24%

Habshan Field/Processing Complex

$455K Vol.

$105K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?

How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?

44%

2–3

$58.4K Vol.

$42.9K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?

Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?

95%

April 6

$195K Vol.

$23.1K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?

Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?

90%

March 29

$163K Vol.

$2.8K Liq.

What will Trump say this week? (April 19)

What will Trump say this week? (April 19)

80%

Transgender

$67.7K Vol.

$13.7K Liq.

Ends in 5 days

What will Trump post this week? (April 13 - April 19)

What will Trump post this week? (April 13 - April 19)

100%

Hoax

$25.0K Vol.

$9.6K Liq.

Ends in 5 days

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

28%

Amal Movement (Amal)

$404K Vol.

$99.4K Liq.

12

Ends in about 2 months

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?

3%

$12.4K Vol.

$11.7K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Hezbollah.

Polymarket currently hosts 123 active markets for Hezbollah that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $48.9M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 96% chance to December 31. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Hezbollah predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.