Despite persistent volatility in Lebanon from Israeli airstrikes, drone activity, and rocket attacks—particularly in the south, Beqaa Valley, and parts of Beirut—the U.S. Embassy in Beirut remains operational on a reduced footprint following the February 23 ordered departure of non-emergency personnel and families. The April 3 security alert urged American citizens to depart via commercial flights amid Iranian threats to regional universities but suspended only routine consular services while offering limited emergency passport assistance, signaling no full evacuation of essential staff. An April 8 gunfire incident near the embassy compound caused no injuries and prompted a high alert without triggering pullout. With trader consensus implying 96% probability against evacuation by April 30, the wisdom of crowds reflects confidence in the current posture amid de-escalation signals like the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, though major Hezbollah escalation or direct threats could prompt rapid reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?
$12,278 Vol.
$12,278 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$12,278 Vol.
$12,278 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Despite persistent volatility in Lebanon from Israeli airstrikes, drone activity, and rocket attacks—particularly in the south, Beqaa Valley, and parts of Beirut—the U.S. Embassy in Beirut remains operational on a reduced footprint following the February 23 ordered departure of non-emergency personnel and families. The April 3 security alert urged American citizens to depart via commercial flights amid Iranian threats to regional universities but suspended only routine consular services while offering limited emergency passport assistance, signaling no full evacuation of essential staff. An April 8 gunfire incident near the embassy compound caused no injuries and prompted a high alert without triggering pullout. With trader consensus implying 96% probability against evacuation by April 30, the wisdom of crowds reflects confidence in the current posture amid de-escalation signals like the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, though major Hezbollah escalation or direct threats could prompt rapid reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Volume
$12,278End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Despite persistent volatility in Lebanon from Israeli airstrikes, drone activity, and rocket attacks—particularly in the south, Beqaa Valley, and parts of Beirut—the U.S. Embassy in Beirut remains operational on a reduced footprint following the February 23 ordered departure of non-emergency personnel and families. The April 3 security alert urged American citizens to depart via commercial flights amid Iranian threats to regional universities but suspended only routine consular services while offering limited emergency passport assistance, signaling no full evacuation of essential staff. An April 8 gunfire incident near the embassy compound caused no injuries and prompted a high alert without triggering pullout. With trader consensus implying 96% probability against evacuation by April 30, the wisdom of crowds reflects confidence in the current posture amid de-escalation signals like the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, though major Hezbollah escalation or direct threats could prompt rapid reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Volume
$12,278End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite persistent volatility in Lebanon from Israeli airstrikes, drone activity, and rocket attacks—particularly in the south, Beqaa Valley, and parts of Beirut—the U.S. Embassy in Beirut remains operational on a reduced footprint following the February 23 ordered departure of non-emergency personnel and families. The April 3 security alert urged American citizens to depart via commercial flights amid Iranian threats to regional universities but suspended only routine consular services while offering limited emergency passport assistance, signaling no full evacuation of essential staff. An April 8 gunfire incident near the embassy compound caused no injuries and prompted a high alert without triggering pullout. With trader consensus implying 96% probability against evacuation by April 30, the wisdom of crowds reflects confidence in the current posture amid de-escalation signals like the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, though major Hezbollah escalation or direct threats could prompt rapid reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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