Amid escalating threats from Iran-backed Houthis to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and target commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea during the 2026 Iran war, trader consensus favors 2–3 successful strikes at 41% implied probability by April 30, reflecting limited past hits since the group's March 28 entry via missile barrages on Israel rather than ships. A failed Houthi boarding attempt on a merchant vessel near Bab el-Mandeb on April 12 underscores defensive successes by US-led naval task forces, tempering expectations for higher tallies despite rhetoric signaling potential maritime escalation. Robust interceptions and historical patterns of numerous attempts yielding few confirmed impacts position 4–5 at 24%, with risks tied to further US or Israeli airstrikes or Gulf state involvement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
2–3 41%
4–5 24%
6–7 17%
10+ 14.6%
$57,376 Vol.
$57,376 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
2–3
41%
4–5
24%
6–7
17%
8–9
6%
10+
15%
2–3 41%
4–5 24%
6–7 17%
10+ 14.6%
$57,376 Vol.
$57,376 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
2–3
$6,597 Vol.
41%
4–5
$13,656 Vol.
24%
6–7
$2,892 Vol.
17%
8–9
$6,388 Vol.
6%
10+
$3,112 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating threats from Iran-backed Houthis to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and target commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea during the 2026 Iran war, trader consensus favors 2–3 successful strikes at 41% implied probability by April 30, reflecting limited past hits since the group's March 28 entry via missile barrages on Israel rather than ships. A failed Houthi boarding attempt on a merchant vessel near Bab el-Mandeb on April 12 underscores defensive successes by US-led naval task forces, tempering expectations for higher tallies despite rhetoric signaling potential maritime escalation. Robust interceptions and historical patterns of numerous attempts yielding few confirmed impacts position 4–5 at 24%, with risks tied to further US or Israeli airstrikes or Gulf state involvement.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volume
$57,376End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating threats from Iran-backed Houthis to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and target commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea during the 2026 Iran war, trader consensus favors 2–3 successful strikes at 41% implied probability by April 30, reflecting limited past hits since the group's March 28 entry via missile barrages on Israel rather than ships. A failed Houthi boarding attempt on a merchant vessel near Bab el-Mandeb on April 12 underscores defensive successes by US-led naval task forces, tempering expectations for higher tallies despite rhetoric signaling potential maritime escalation. Robust interceptions and historical patterns of numerous attempts yielding few confirmed impacts position 4–5 at 24%, with risks tied to further US or Israeli airstrikes or Gulf state involvement.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$57,376End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid escalating threats from Iran-backed Houthis to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and target commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea during the 2026 Iran war, trader consensus favors 2–3 successful strikes at 41% implied probability by April 30, reflecting limited past hits since the group's March 28 entry via missile barrages on Israel rather than ships. A failed Houthi boarding attempt on a merchant vessel near Bab el-Mandeb on April 12 underscores defensive successes by US-led naval task forces, tempering expectations for higher tallies despite rhetoric signaling potential maritime escalation. Robust interceptions and historical patterns of numerous attempts yielding few confirmed impacts position 4–5 at 24%, with risks tied to further US or Israeli airstrikes or Gulf state involvement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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