Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 63.5% implied probability against Israeli forces crossing the Litani River by June 30, driven by Hezbollah's effective ambushes that halted IDF ground advances near the river in early April, including a deadly strike on April 6 along the Taybeh-Qantara axis that killed one soldier and wounded dozens, forcing withdrawals. Senior IDF officers stated on April 7 no plans for deeper incursions, following completion of a forward defense line south of the Litani to demilitarize the area per UN Resolution 1701 goals. Earlier March announcements by Defense Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu of a security zone up to the Litani have not materialized into crossings amid fierce resistance, airstrikes on river bridges, and emerging ceasefire talks with Lebanon, leaving limited time for escalation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsraeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
$332,910 Vol.
$332,910 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$332,910 Vol.
$332,910 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 63.5% implied probability against Israeli forces crossing the Litani River by June 30, driven by Hezbollah's effective ambushes that halted IDF ground advances near the river in early April, including a deadly strike on April 6 along the Taybeh-Qantara axis that killed one soldier and wounded dozens, forcing withdrawals. Senior IDF officers stated on April 7 no plans for deeper incursions, following completion of a forward defense line south of the Litani to demilitarize the area per UN Resolution 1701 goals. Earlier March announcements by Defense Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu of a security zone up to the Litani have not materialized into crossings amid fierce resistance, airstrikes on river bridges, and emerging ceasefire talks with Lebanon, leaving limited time for escalation before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$332,910End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 63.5% implied probability against Israeli forces crossing the Litani River by June 30, driven by Hezbollah's effective ambushes that halted IDF ground advances near the river in early April, including a deadly strike on April 6 along the Taybeh-Qantara axis that killed one soldier and wounded dozens, forcing withdrawals. Senior IDF officers stated on April 7 no plans for deeper incursions, following completion of a forward defense line south of the Litani to demilitarize the area per UN Resolution 1701 goals. Earlier March announcements by Defense Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu of a security zone up to the Litani have not materialized into crossings amid fierce resistance, airstrikes on river bridges, and emerging ceasefire talks with Lebanon, leaving limited time for escalation before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$332,910End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 63.5% implied probability against Israeli forces crossing the Litani River by June 30, driven by Hezbollah's effective ambushes that halted IDF ground advances near the river in early April, including a deadly strike on April 6 along the Taybeh-Qantara axis that killed one soldier and wounded dozens, forcing withdrawals. Senior IDF officers stated on April 7 no plans for deeper incursions, following completion of a forward defense line south of the Litani to demilitarize the area per UN Resolution 1701 goals. Earlier March announcements by Defense Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu of a security zone up to the Litani have not materialized into crossings amid fierce resistance, airstrikes on river bridges, and emerging ceasefire talks with Lebanon, leaving limited time for escalation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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