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Elections·Middle East

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Market icon
Elections·Middle East

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA) 8.4%

Lebanese Forces (LF) 8%

Amal Movement (Amal) 7.0%

Marada Movement (MM) 5.4%

Polymarket

$397,589 Vol.

Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA) 8.4%

Lebanese Forces (LF) 8%

Amal Movement (Amal) 7.0%

Marada Movement (MM) 5.4%

Polymarket

$397,589 Vol.

Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)

$2,697 Vol.

8%

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$142,865 Vol.

8%

Amal Movement (Amal)

$35,924 Vol.

7%

Marada Movement (MM)

$2,259 Vol.

5%

Independence Movement (IM)

$2,295 Vol.

5%

ReLebanon

$1,902 Vol.

3%

Taqaddom Party

$3,896 Vol.

3%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$41,839 Vol.

3%

National Liberal Party (NLP)

$2,821 Vol.

3%

National Dialogue Party (NDP)

$0 Vol.

3%

Watani Alliance (Watani)

$3,122 Vol.

2%

Mada Party (Mada)

$22,477 Vol.

2%

Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)

$72,449 Vol.

2%

Union Party (UP)

$2,564 Vol.

2%

Islamic Group (IG)

$2,921 Vol.

1%

Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)

$3,826 Vol.

1%

Dignity Movement (DM)

$0 Vol.

1%

Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)

$2,152 Vol.

1%

Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)

$4,602 Vol.

1%

Kataeb Party (Kataeb)

$0 Vol.

1%

Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)

$46,980 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$0 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament extended its mandate by two years on March 9, 2026, postponing May parliamentary elections amid the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, displacement, and security concerns, rendering results unlikely before the Polymarket's October 31 deadline and favoring "Other" resolution while fragmenting trader consensus across outcomes. The Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA) leads narrowly at 8.5% implied probability, buoyed by its Sunni base and anti-Hezbollah stance amid the group's post-war weakening (2.9%), ahead of Lebanese Forces (LF) at 7.5% leveraging Christian strongholds and Amal Movement at 6.9% retaining Shia loyalty despite alliance strains. Key differentiators include sectarian appeals and opposition dynamics; consolidation could hinge on coalition negotiations, expatriate voter mobilization, and stabilization efforts before any snap election.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$397,589
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament extended its mandate by two years on March 9, 2026, postponing May parliamentary elections amid the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, displacement, and security concerns, rendering results unlikely before the Polymarket's October 31 deadline and favoring "Other" resolution while fragmenting trader consensus across outcomes. The Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA) leads narrowly at 8.5% implied probability, buoyed by its Sunni base and anti-Hezbollah stance amid the group's post-war weakening (2.9%), ahead of Lebanese Forces (LF) at 7.5% leveraging Christian strongholds and Amal Movement at 6.9% retaining Shia loyalty despite alliance strains. Key differentiators include sectarian appeals and opposition dynamics; consolidation could hinge on coalition negotiations, expatriate voter mobilization, and stabilization efforts before any snap election.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$397,589
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)" at 8%, followed by "Lebanese Forces (LF)" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner" has generated $397.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner" is "Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)" at just 8%, with "Lebanese Forces (LF)" close behind at 8%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.