Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 80-81°F (33.5% implied probability) as the highest temperature in New York City on April 14, closely trailed by 82-83°F (25.5%), driven by the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble consensus from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models projecting peaks near 81°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence, warm southerly advection, and ample sunshine. Differentiating the frontrunners are subtle model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and peak heating timing—stronger solar insolation and urban heat island effects could nudge toward 82-83°F, while afternoon sea-breeze incursions or lingering clouds favor 78-79°F (19.5%). Historical April variability underscores inherent forecast uncertainty, with final 12Z model runs and NWS updates today poised to sharpen odds before Central Park Observatory measurements resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on April 14?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 14?
80-81°F 37%
82-83°F 29%
78-79°F 18%
76-77°F 8.2%
NEW
$20,115 Vol.
NEW
$20,115 Vol.
Apr 14, 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
37%
82-83°F
29%
84-85°F
4%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
2%
90°F or higher
1%
80-81°F 37%
82-83°F 29%
78-79°F 18%
76-77°F 8.2%
NEW
$20,115 Vol.
NEW
$20,115 Vol.
Apr 14, 2026
71°F or below
$2,699 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$2,437 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$1,619 Vol.
4%
76-77°F
$1,960 Vol.
8%
78-79°F
$1,287 Vol.
18%
80-81°F
$1,808 Vol.
37%
82-83°F
$1,606 Vol.
29%
84-85°F
$1,462 Vol.
4%
86-87°F
$1,981 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$1,571 Vol.
2%
90°F or higher
$1,796 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 80-81°F (33.5% implied probability) as the highest temperature in New York City on April 14, closely trailed by 82-83°F (25.5%), driven by the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble consensus from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models projecting peaks near 81°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence, warm southerly advection, and ample sunshine. Differentiating the frontrunners are subtle model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and peak heating timing—stronger solar insolation and urban heat island effects could nudge toward 82-83°F, while afternoon sea-breeze incursions or lingering clouds favor 78-79°F (19.5%). Historical April variability underscores inherent forecast uncertainty, with final 12Z model runs and NWS updates today poised to sharpen odds before Central Park Observatory measurements resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 12, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$20,115End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Apr 12, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 80-81°F (33.5% implied probability) as the highest temperature in New York City on April 14, closely trailed by 82-83°F (25.5%), driven by the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble consensus from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models projecting peaks near 81°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence, warm southerly advection, and ample sunshine. Differentiating the frontrunners are subtle model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and peak heating timing—stronger solar insolation and urban heat island effects could nudge toward 82-83°F, while afternoon sea-breeze incursions or lingering clouds favor 78-79°F (19.5%). Historical April variability underscores inherent forecast uncertainty, with final 12Z model runs and NWS updates today poised to sharpen odds before Central Park Observatory measurements resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,115End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Apr 12, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 80-81°F (33.5% implied probability) as the highest temperature in New York City on April 14, closely trailed by 82-83°F (25.5%), driven by the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble consensus from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models projecting peaks near 81°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence, warm southerly advection, and ample sunshine. Differentiating the frontrunners are subtle model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and peak heating timing—stronger solar insolation and urban heat island effects could nudge toward 82-83°F, while afternoon sea-breeze incursions or lingering clouds favor 78-79°F (19.5%). Historical April variability underscores inherent forecast uncertainty, with final 12Z model runs and NWS updates today poised to sharpen odds before Central Park Observatory measurements resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions