Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (44% implied probability) and 10°C (28%) as Munich Airport's highest temperature on April 14, mirroring the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering at 10-12°C under a persistent low-pressure trough over Central Europe. Cool northerly airflow, widespread cloud cover, and expected light rain or showers—per Deutscher Wetterdienst guidance—severely limit solar insolation and daytime heating, consistent with April 2026's anomalously cold pattern where monthly means lag 5°C below the 9.4°C norm. Over the past 24 hours, model updates have tightened around this range, reducing odds for warmer outcomes; final resolution hinges on airport observations amid low short-term uncertainty, with new hourly DWD data potentially refining the picture by evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on April 14?
Highest temperature in Munich on April 14?
11°C 43%
10°C 31%
12°C 10%
13°C 5.4%
$36,720 Vol.
$36,720 Vol.
5°C or below
1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
5%
10°C
31%
11°C
43%
12°C
10%
13°C
5%
14°C
1%
15°C or higher
1%
11°C 43%
10°C 31%
12°C 10%
13°C 5.4%
$36,720 Vol.
$36,720 Vol.
5°C or below
1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
5%
10°C
31%
11°C
43%
12°C
10%
13°C
5%
14°C
1%
15°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 12, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (44% implied probability) and 10°C (28%) as Munich Airport's highest temperature on April 14, mirroring the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering at 10-12°C under a persistent low-pressure trough over Central Europe. Cool northerly airflow, widespread cloud cover, and expected light rain or showers—per Deutscher Wetterdienst guidance—severely limit solar insolation and daytime heating, consistent with April 2026's anomalously cold pattern where monthly means lag 5°C below the 9.4°C norm. Over the past 24 hours, model updates have tightened around this range, reducing odds for warmer outcomes; final resolution hinges on airport observations amid low short-term uncertainty, with new hourly DWD data potentially refining the picture by evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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