Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Moscow's highest temperature on April 15 clustering around 12-14°C, aligning with trader-implied odds favoring those outcomes amid overcast skies and possible morning showers that could limit solar heating. Recent developments, including today's 12°C high under cloudy conditions and a forecasted dip to 10°C tomorrow with rain, reflect a mild spring pattern warmer than the April climatological average of about 10°C, influenced by a weakening low-pressure system yielding to high-pressure influence. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—potentially capping peaks at 12-13°C—or brief clearing pushing toward 14°C—against a 1-2°C model spread. New runs expected within 24 hours from NOAA and Hydrometcenter will refine this uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on April 15?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 15?
12°C 27%
13°C 23%
14°C 11%
11°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 15, 2026
8°C or below
1%
9°C
3%
10°C
6%
11°C
9%
12°C
27%
13°C
23%
14°C
17%
15°C
8%
16°C
4%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
1%
12°C 27%
13°C 23%
14°C 11%
11°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 15, 2026
8°C or below
$156 Vol.
1%
9°C
$676 Vol.
3%
10°C
$183 Vol.
6%
11°C
$142 Vol.
9%
12°C
$139 Vol.
27%
13°C
$50 Vol.
23%
14°C
$1,217 Vol.
17%
15°C
$793 Vol.
8%
16°C
$614 Vol.
4%
17°C
$653 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$312 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Moscow's highest temperature on April 15 clustering around 12-14°C, aligning with trader-implied odds favoring those outcomes amid overcast skies and possible morning showers that could limit solar heating. Recent developments, including today's 12°C high under cloudy conditions and a forecasted dip to 10°C tomorrow with rain, reflect a mild spring pattern warmer than the April climatological average of about 10°C, influenced by a weakening low-pressure system yielding to high-pressure influence. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—potentially capping peaks at 12-13°C—or brief clearing pushing toward 14°C—against a 1-2°C model spread. New runs expected within 24 hours from NOAA and Hydrometcenter will refine this uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Volume
$4,935End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Moscow's highest temperature on April 15 clustering around 12-14°C, aligning with trader-implied odds favoring those outcomes amid overcast skies and possible morning showers that could limit solar heating. Recent developments, including today's 12°C high under cloudy conditions and a forecasted dip to 10°C tomorrow with rain, reflect a mild spring pattern warmer than the April climatological average of about 10°C, influenced by a weakening low-pressure system yielding to high-pressure influence. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—potentially capping peaks at 12-13°C—or brief clearing pushing toward 14°C—against a 1-2°C model spread. New runs expected within 24 hours from NOAA and Hydrometcenter will refine this uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,935End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Moscow's highest temperature on April 15 clustering around 12-14°C, aligning with trader-implied odds favoring those outcomes amid overcast skies and possible morning showers that could limit solar heating. Recent developments, including today's 12°C high under cloudy conditions and a forecasted dip to 10°C tomorrow with rain, reflect a mild spring pattern warmer than the April climatological average of about 10°C, influenced by a weakening low-pressure system yielding to high-pressure influence. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—potentially capping peaks at 12-13°C—or brief clearing pushing toward 14°C—against a 1-2°C model spread. New runs expected within 24 hours from NOAA and Hydrometcenter will refine this uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions