Ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), GFS, and ECMWF models show Beijing's highest temperature on April 14 clustering around 20-21°C under persistent cloudy skies and light easterly winds, fueling trader consensus on those closely matched outcomes at 31.5% and 23.0% implied probabilities. This reflects recent observational data from April 13's overcast high of 18°C, with minimal diurnal warming expected due to reduced solar insolation from mid-level cloud cover. Scientific uncertainty stems from a 1-2°C model spread, influenced by subtle shifts in upper-air patterns and potential afternoon clearing; historical April mid-teens variability adds to the tight race. Watch CMA's evening update and real-time airport observations for resolution shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on April 14?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 14?
21°C 32%
20°C 23%
22°C 14%
19°C 11%
NEW
$20,223 Vol.
NEW
$20,223 Vol.
Apr 14, 2026
18°C or below
8%
19°C
11%
20°C
23%
21°C
32%
22°C
14%
23°C
4%
24°C
2%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
21°C 32%
20°C 23%
22°C 14%
19°C 11%
NEW
$20,223 Vol.
NEW
$20,223 Vol.
Apr 14, 2026
18°C or below
$4,163 Vol.
8%
19°C
$1,442 Vol.
11%
20°C
$1,164 Vol.
23%
21°C
$1,079 Vol.
32%
22°C
$1,954 Vol.
14%
23°C
$3,132 Vol.
4%
24°C
$2,943 Vol.
2%
25°C
$1,480 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,136 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,064 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$696 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), GFS, and ECMWF models show Beijing's highest temperature on April 14 clustering around 20-21°C under persistent cloudy skies and light easterly winds, fueling trader consensus on those closely matched outcomes at 31.5% and 23.0% implied probabilities. This reflects recent observational data from April 13's overcast high of 18°C, with minimal diurnal warming expected due to reduced solar insolation from mid-level cloud cover. Scientific uncertainty stems from a 1-2°C model spread, influenced by subtle shifts in upper-air patterns and potential afternoon clearing; historical April mid-teens variability adds to the tight race. Watch CMA's evening update and real-time airport observations for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 12, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
Volume
$20,223End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Apr 12, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), GFS, and ECMWF models show Beijing's highest temperature on April 14 clustering around 20-21°C under persistent cloudy skies and light easterly winds, fueling trader consensus on those closely matched outcomes at 31.5% and 23.0% implied probabilities. This reflects recent observational data from April 13's overcast high of 18°C, with minimal diurnal warming expected due to reduced solar insolation from mid-level cloud cover. Scientific uncertainty stems from a 1-2°C model spread, influenced by subtle shifts in upper-air patterns and potential afternoon clearing; historical April mid-teens variability adds to the tight race. Watch CMA's evening update and real-time airport observations for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,223End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Apr 12, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), GFS, and ECMWF models show Beijing's highest temperature on April 14 clustering around 20-21°C under persistent cloudy skies and light easterly winds, fueling trader consensus on those closely matched outcomes at 31.5% and 23.0% implied probabilities. This reflects recent observational data from April 13's overcast high of 18°C, with minimal diurnal warming expected due to reduced solar insolation from mid-level cloud cover. Scientific uncertainty stems from a 1-2°C model spread, influenced by subtle shifts in upper-air patterns and potential afternoon clearing; historical April mid-teens variability adds to the tight race. Watch CMA's evening update and real-time airport observations for resolution shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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