The 89.5% market-implied probability for no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, which occur globally only one to three times per century according to USGS seismic catalogs and recurrence models, with none recorded since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. Current USGS monitoring of key subduction zones—Cascadia, Japan, Chile, and Sumatra—shows no anomalous strain buildup, foreshock swarms, or slow-slip events signaling imminent rupture capable of M9+ shaking. The July 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka quake, the largest since 2011, relieved local stress without triggering escalation, reinforcing trader consensus on baseline low risk over the market's remaining ~8 months. Continuous real-time seismic data from USGS networks will inform any shifts, though such events remain fundamentally unpredictable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$177,538 Vol.
$177,538 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$177,538 Vol.
$177,538 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The 89.5% market-implied probability for no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, which occur globally only one to three times per century according to USGS seismic catalogs and recurrence models, with none recorded since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. Current USGS monitoring of key subduction zones—Cascadia, Japan, Chile, and Sumatra—shows no anomalous strain buildup, foreshock swarms, or slow-slip events signaling imminent rupture capable of M9+ shaking. The July 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka quake, the largest since 2011, relieved local stress without triggering escalation, reinforcing trader consensus on baseline low risk over the market's remaining ~8 months. Continuous real-time seismic data from USGS networks will inform any shifts, though such events remain fundamentally unpredictable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$177,538End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The 89.5% market-implied probability for no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, which occur globally only one to three times per century according to USGS seismic catalogs and recurrence models, with none recorded since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. Current USGS monitoring of key subduction zones—Cascadia, Japan, Chile, and Sumatra—shows no anomalous strain buildup, foreshock swarms, or slow-slip events signaling imminent rupture capable of M9+ shaking. The July 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka quake, the largest since 2011, relieved local stress without triggering escalation, reinforcing trader consensus on baseline low risk over the market's remaining ~8 months. Continuous real-time seismic data from USGS networks will inform any shifts, though such events remain fundamentally unpredictable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$177,538End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 89.5% market-implied probability for no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, which occur globally only one to three times per century according to USGS seismic catalogs and recurrence models, with none recorded since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. Current USGS monitoring of key subduction zones—Cascadia, Japan, Chile, and Sumatra—shows no anomalous strain buildup, foreshock swarms, or slow-slip events signaling imminent rupture capable of M9+ shaking. The July 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka quake, the largest since 2011, relieved local stress without triggering escalation, reinforcing trader consensus on baseline low risk over the market's remaining ~8 months. Continuous real-time seismic data from USGS networks will inform any shifts, though such events remain fundamentally unpredictable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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