Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 95% implied probability for a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting authoritative USGS assessments that such events are physically impossible. Earthquake magnitude scales with fault rupture length, and no known fault exceeds the ~1,000 km needed for even a magnitude 9.5—the record set by Chile's 1960 Valdivia quake—let alone the global circumference-spanning rupture required for M10. No magnitude 9+ events have occurred since Japan's 2011 Tohoku quake, and 2026's largest remain below M7.5 per USGS monitoring, with no anomalous seismic activity reported. Realistic challenges would demand a paradigm-shifting discovery in plate tectonics or measurement methodology, both highly improbable absent new data from ongoing global networks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$553,604 Vol.
$553,604 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$553,604 Vol.
$553,604 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 95% implied probability for a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting authoritative USGS assessments that such events are physically impossible. Earthquake magnitude scales with fault rupture length, and no known fault exceeds the ~1,000 km needed for even a magnitude 9.5—the record set by Chile's 1960 Valdivia quake—let alone the global circumference-spanning rupture required for M10. No magnitude 9+ events have occurred since Japan's 2011 Tohoku quake, and 2026's largest remain below M7.5 per USGS monitoring, with no anomalous seismic activity reported. Realistic challenges would demand a paradigm-shifting discovery in plate tectonics or measurement methodology, both highly improbable absent new data from ongoing global networks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$553,604End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 95% implied probability for a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting authoritative USGS assessments that such events are physically impossible. Earthquake magnitude scales with fault rupture length, and no known fault exceeds the ~1,000 km needed for even a magnitude 9.5—the record set by Chile's 1960 Valdivia quake—let alone the global circumference-spanning rupture required for M10. No magnitude 9+ events have occurred since Japan's 2011 Tohoku quake, and 2026's largest remain below M7.5 per USGS monitoring, with no anomalous seismic activity reported. Realistic challenges would demand a paradigm-shifting discovery in plate tectonics or measurement methodology, both highly improbable absent new data from ongoing global networks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$553,604End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 95% implied probability for a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting authoritative USGS assessments that such events are physically impossible. Earthquake magnitude scales with fault rupture length, and no known fault exceeds the ~1,000 km needed for even a magnitude 9.5—the record set by Chile's 1960 Valdivia quake—let alone the global circumference-spanning rupture required for M10. No magnitude 9+ events have occurred since Japan's 2011 Tohoku quake, and 2026's largest remain below M7.5 per USGS monitoring, with no anomalous seismic activity reported. Realistic challenges would demand a paradigm-shifting discovery in plate tectonics or measurement methodology, both highly improbable absent new data from ongoing global networks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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