NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts show near-zero probability for an S3 (strong) or higher solar radiation storm through April 30, mirroring traders' strong conviction in the 93.5% "No" odds. Recent solar activity has been very low, with no significant sunspot regions capable of X-class flares that drive proton events exceeding S3 thresholds—only C-class flares anticipated in daily outlooks. A coronal mass ejection on April 1 produced only minor geomagnetic effects, not radiation storms. In Solar Cycle 25's declining phase, such events are historically rare without complex active regions. Realistic challenges include rapid emergence of a new magnetically twisted sunspot triggering an Earth-directed flare; watch weekly Solar Region Summaries and 27-day outlooks for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor solar storm by April 30?
Major solar storm by April 30?
$12,411 Vol.
$12,411 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$12,411 Vol.
$12,411 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts show near-zero probability for an S3 (strong) or higher solar radiation storm through April 30, mirroring traders' strong conviction in the 93.5% "No" odds. Recent solar activity has been very low, with no significant sunspot regions capable of X-class flares that drive proton events exceeding S3 thresholds—only C-class flares anticipated in daily outlooks. A coronal mass ejection on April 1 produced only minor geomagnetic effects, not radiation storms. In Solar Cycle 25's declining phase, such events are historically rare without complex active regions. Realistic challenges include rapid emergence of a new magnetically twisted sunspot triggering an Earth-directed flare; watch weekly Solar Region Summaries and 27-day outlooks for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
Volume
$12,411End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts show near-zero probability for an S3 (strong) or higher solar radiation storm through April 30, mirroring traders' strong conviction in the 93.5% "No" odds. Recent solar activity has been very low, with no significant sunspot regions capable of X-class flares that drive proton events exceeding S3 thresholds—only C-class flares anticipated in daily outlooks. A coronal mass ejection on April 1 produced only minor geomagnetic effects, not radiation storms. In Solar Cycle 25's declining phase, such events are historically rare without complex active regions. Realistic challenges include rapid emergence of a new magnetically twisted sunspot triggering an Earth-directed flare; watch weekly Solar Region Summaries and 27-day outlooks for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$12,411End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts show near-zero probability for an S3 (strong) or higher solar radiation storm through April 30, mirroring traders' strong conviction in the 93.5% "No" odds. Recent solar activity has been very low, with no significant sunspot regions capable of X-class flares that drive proton events exceeding S3 thresholds—only C-class flares anticipated in daily outlooks. A coronal mass ejection on April 1 produced only minor geomagnetic effects, not radiation storms. In Solar Cycle 25's declining phase, such events are historically rare without complex active regions. Realistic challenges include rapid emergence of a new magnetically twisted sunspot triggering an Earth-directed flare; watch weekly Solar Region Summaries and 27-day outlooks for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions