Trader consensus strongly favors no major solar storm—defined as G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic activity on the NOAA Kp scale—by April 30, with 93.5% implied probability, driven by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's (SWPC) latest 27-day outlook forecasting low solar activity through May 2 amid Solar Cycle 25's post-peak decline. Recent developments include only minor-to-moderate events, such as a G2 watch early April from a coronal hole high-speed stream and CME, plus G1 storms around April 10-12, but no X-class flares or Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) since late March's R3 event. Quiet sunspot regions and model consensus reinforce this positioning. A sudden complex active region's emergence could produce an unexpected strong flare and CME, prompting rapid SWPC forecast updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor solar storm by April 30?
Major solar storm by April 30?
$12,411 Vol.
$12,411 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$12,411 Vol.
$12,411 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus strongly favors no major solar storm—defined as G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic activity on the NOAA Kp scale—by April 30, with 93.5% implied probability, driven by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's (SWPC) latest 27-day outlook forecasting low solar activity through May 2 amid Solar Cycle 25's post-peak decline. Recent developments include only minor-to-moderate events, such as a G2 watch early April from a coronal hole high-speed stream and CME, plus G1 storms around April 10-12, but no X-class flares or Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) since late March's R3 event. Quiet sunspot regions and model consensus reinforce this positioning. A sudden complex active region's emergence could produce an unexpected strong flare and CME, prompting rapid SWPC forecast updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
Volume
$12,411End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus strongly favors no major solar storm—defined as G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic activity on the NOAA Kp scale—by April 30, with 93.5% implied probability, driven by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's (SWPC) latest 27-day outlook forecasting low solar activity through May 2 amid Solar Cycle 25's post-peak decline. Recent developments include only minor-to-moderate events, such as a G2 watch early April from a coronal hole high-speed stream and CME, plus G1 storms around April 10-12, but no X-class flares or Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) since late March's R3 event. Quiet sunspot regions and model consensus reinforce this positioning. A sudden complex active region's emergence could produce an unexpected strong flare and CME, prompting rapid SWPC forecast updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$12,411End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors no major solar storm—defined as G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic activity on the NOAA Kp scale—by April 30, with 93.5% implied probability, driven by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's (SWPC) latest 27-day outlook forecasting low solar activity through May 2 amid Solar Cycle 25's post-peak decline. Recent developments include only minor-to-moderate events, such as a G2 watch early April from a coronal hole high-speed stream and CME, plus G1 storms around April 10-12, but no X-class flares or Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) since late March's R3 event. Quiet sunspot regions and model consensus reinforce this positioning. A sudden complex active region's emergence could produce an unexpected strong flare and CME, prompting rapid SWPC forecast updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions