Trader consensus favors the CDU as the leading outcome with 55.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, driven by consistent Sonntagsfragen showing it at 22-23%—a 5-8 point edge over rivals—amid widespread dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD Schwarz-Rot coalition's crisis management, including a major January power outage affecting thousands. A March 30 Civey poll for Tagesspiegel reaffirmed this, with AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne clustered at 15-16%, fragmenting opposition votes and limiting their paths to overtake. Earlier BerlinTrend surveys highlight the Senate's declining approval, boosting CDU's incumbency advantage while SPD polls languish, capping its chances at 7.9%. Upcoming campaign events could shift dynamics in this competitive multi-party race under proportional representation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBerlin State Election Winner
Berlin State Election Winner
CDU 56%
Grüne 14.4%
Linke 13%
AfD 10.4%
$2,567,584 Vol.
$2,567,584 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
56%
Grüne
14%
Linke
13%
AfD
10%
SPD
8%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 56%
Grüne 14.4%
Linke 13%
AfD 10.4%
$2,567,584 Vol.
$2,567,584 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$14,944 Vol.
56%
Grüne
$26,265 Vol.
14%
Linke
$11,292 Vol.
13%
AfD
$2,184,268 Vol.
10%
SPD
$287,291 Vol.
8%
BSW
$26,247 Vol.
1%
FDP
$10,250 Vol.
<1%
FW
$7,026 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU as the leading outcome with 55.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, driven by consistent Sonntagsfragen showing it at 22-23%—a 5-8 point edge over rivals—amid widespread dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD Schwarz-Rot coalition's crisis management, including a major January power outage affecting thousands. A March 30 Civey poll for Tagesspiegel reaffirmed this, with AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne clustered at 15-16%, fragmenting opposition votes and limiting their paths to overtake. Earlier BerlinTrend surveys highlight the Senate's declining approval, boosting CDU's incumbency advantage while SPD polls languish, capping its chances at 7.9%. Upcoming campaign events could shift dynamics in this competitive multi-party race under proportional representation.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$2,567,584End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU as the leading outcome with 55.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, driven by consistent Sonntagsfragen showing it at 22-23%—a 5-8 point edge over rivals—amid widespread dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD Schwarz-Rot coalition's crisis management, including a major January power outage affecting thousands. A March 30 Civey poll for Tagesspiegel reaffirmed this, with AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne clustered at 15-16%, fragmenting opposition votes and limiting their paths to overtake. Earlier BerlinTrend surveys highlight the Senate's declining approval, boosting CDU's incumbency advantage while SPD polls languish, capping its chances at 7.9%. Upcoming campaign events could shift dynamics in this competitive multi-party race under proportional representation.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$2,567,584End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the CDU as the leading outcome with 55.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, driven by consistent Sonntagsfragen showing it at 22-23%—a 5-8 point edge over rivals—amid widespread dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD Schwarz-Rot coalition's crisis management, including a major January power outage affecting thousands. A March 30 Civey poll for Tagesspiegel reaffirmed this, with AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne clustered at 15-16%, fragmenting opposition votes and limiting their paths to overtake. Earlier BerlinTrend surveys highlight the Senate's declining approval, boosting CDU's incumbency advantage while SPD polls languish, capping its chances at 7.9%. Upcoming campaign events could shift dynamics in this competitive multi-party race under proportional representation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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