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Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

$474,700 Vol.

Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$474,700 Vol.

Polymarket

Steve Hilton

$34,305 Vol.

80%

Tom Steyer

$20,895 Vol.

68%

Elaine Culotti

$1 Vol.

25%

Matt Mahan

$11,233 Vol.

19%

Katie Porter

$6,238 Vol.

17%

Chad Bianco

$16,261 Vol.

13%

Xavier Becerra

$6,089 Vol.

7%

Derek Grasty

$12,571 Vol.

6%

Sophia Brink

$37,787 Vol.

6%

David Thelen

$750 Vol.

5%

Ethan Agarwal

$2,470 Vol.

4%

Sharifah Hardie

$0 Vol.

4%

Betty Yee

$2,813 Vol.

4%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$11,583 Vol.

3%

Jimmy Parker

$0 Vol.

3%

Dylan Colbert

$13,361 Vol.

3%

Nicki Minaj

$0 Vol.

3%

Daniel Mercuri

$8,339 Vol.

3%

Ryan Tillman

$1,313 Vol.

3%

Ian Calderon

$112,145 Vol.

3%

Ché Ahn

$17,713 Vol.

3%

Brandon Jones

$35,770 Vol.

2%

Nicholas Thompson

$6,683 Vol.

2%

Raji Rab

$2,320 Vol.

2%

Leo Zacky

$0 Vol.

2%

Ramsey Robinson

$2,831 Vol.

2%

Javen Allen

$0 Vol.

10%

Thunder Parley

$49,324 Vol.

2%

David Serpa

$4,496 Vol.

2%

Kyle Langford

$10,622 Vol.

2%

Tony Thurmond

$1,382 Vol.

2%

Carolina Buhler

$6,277 Vol.

2%

Leonard Jackson

$2,807 Vol.

2%

Butch Ware

$7,573 Vol.

2%

Zoltan Istvan

$11,488 Vol.

2%

Eric Swalwell

$17,256 Vol.

1%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's open top-two gubernatorial primary on June 2, 2026, recent polls show Republicans Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco leading or closely trailing Democrats, raising the prospect of two GOP candidates advancing to the November general election in the deep-blue state. Democrat Rep. Eric Swalwell, who topped a March Emerson poll, suspended his bid on April 12 amid sexual assault allegations from a former staffer and collapsing endorsements, potentially consolidating support for billionaire Tom Steyer, Rep. Katie Porter, or others in the 61-candidate field. President Trump's recent Hilton endorsement, alongside a Desert Sun poll through early April favoring Republicans, has fueled trader consensus on GOP strength amid high undecideds (25%+). CNN's upcoming primary debate and Gov. Gavin Newsom's term limit add uncertainty to this volatile race.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$474,700
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's open top-two gubernatorial primary on June 2, 2026, recent polls show Republicans Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco leading or closely trailing Democrats, raising the prospect of two GOP candidates advancing to the November general election in the deep-blue state. Democrat Rep. Eric Swalwell, who topped a March Emerson poll, suspended his bid on April 12 amid sexual assault allegations from a former staffer and collapsing endorsements, potentially consolidating support for billionaire Tom Steyer, Rep. Katie Porter, or others in the 61-candidate field. President Trump's recent Hilton endorsement, alongside a Desert Sun poll through early April favoring Republicans, has fueled trader consensus on GOP strength amid high undecideds (25%+). CNN's upcoming primary debate and Gov. Gavin Newsom's term limit add uncertainty to this volatile race.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$474,700
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Steve Hilton" at 80%, followed by "Tom Steyer" at 68%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 80¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" has generated $474.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is "Steve Hilton" at 80%, meaning the market assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tom Steyer" at 68%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.