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Politics·Primaries

Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?

Dem-Rep 79%

Dem-Dem 14%

Rep-Rep 5.8%

Polymarket

$52,549 Vol.

Dem-Rep 79%

Dem-Dem 14%

Rep-Rep 5.8%

Polymarket

$52,549 Vol.

Market icon

Dem-Rep

$22,450 Vol.

79%

Market icon

Dem-Dem

$22,877 Vol.

14%

Market icon

Rep-Rep

$7,221 Vol.

6%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a party. In case any combination of parties advances that is not listed here, including all scenarios where an independent candidate advances, this market will resolve to "Other". If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.**Trader consensus heavily favors a Democrat-Republican top-two matchup at 79% implied probability in California's nonpartisan primary for governor on June 2, 2026, driven by recent polls showing Republican Steve Hilton leading at 17-23% and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 13-16%, while the Democratic field remains fragmented across candidates like Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer (each 10-14%).** March-April surveys from Berkeley IGS, Emerson College, UCI/TrueDot, and others highlight this dynamic, where no single Democrat breaks out amid over a dozen contenders, positioning Hilton for first and the second slot as a tight race between Bianco and a leading Democrat under high Democratic turnout expectations. A slim 5.9% on Rep-Rep reflects historical base rates against party lockouts in deep-blue California, with Dem-Dem at 13% due to vote-splitting risks; upcoming CNN debate on May 5 may shift consolidation ahead of certification.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a party.

In case any combination of parties advances that is not listed here, including all scenarios where an independent candidate advances, this market will resolve to "Other".

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$52,549
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a party. In case any combination of parties advances that is not listed here, including all scenarios where an independent candidate advances, this market will resolve to "Other". If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a party. In case any combination of parties advances that is not listed here, including all scenarios where an independent candidate advances, this market will resolve to "Other". If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.**Trader consensus heavily favors a Democrat-Republican top-two matchup at 79% implied probability in California's nonpartisan primary for governor on June 2, 2026, driven by recent polls showing Republican Steve Hilton leading at 17-23% and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 13-16%, while the Democratic field remains fragmented across candidates like Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer (each 10-14%).** March-April surveys from Berkeley IGS, Emerson College, UCI/TrueDot, and others highlight this dynamic, where no single Democrat breaks out amid over a dozen contenders, positioning Hilton for first and the second slot as a tight race between Bianco and a leading Democrat under high Democratic turnout expectations. A slim 5.9% on Rep-Rep reflects historical base rates against party lockouts in deep-blue California, with Dem-Dem at 13% due to vote-splitting risks; upcoming CNN debate on May 5 may shift consolidation ahead of certification.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a party.

In case any combination of parties advances that is not listed here, including all scenarios where an independent candidate advances, this market will resolve to "Other".

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$52,549
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a party. In case any combination of parties advances that is not listed here, including all scenarios where an independent candidate advances, this market will resolve to "Other". If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dem-Rep" at 79%, followed by "Dem-Dem" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?" has generated $52.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?" is "Dem-Rep" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dem-Dem" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.