Under new President José Antonio Kast, inaugurated March 11, 2026, Chile has extended states of constitutional emergency in the Macrozona Sur—Congress approved the latest 30-day prorogation on March 24 amid ongoing violence and security threats—without resorting to the more severe state of siege, which requires threats like war or internal rebellion. Kast's security agenda emphasizes military deployments, northern border fortifications via the Escudo Fronterizo plan, and intelligence reforms, stabilizing conditions rather than escalating. Absent major unrest or official announcements signaling sitio declaration by June 30, traders price a 92% "No" probability, viewing current measures as sufficient amid the post-Boric transition. Late-breaking crises could shift odds, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedState of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
$40,372 Vol.
$40,372 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$40,372 Vol.
$40,372 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Under new President José Antonio Kast, inaugurated March 11, 2026, Chile has extended states of constitutional emergency in the Macrozona Sur—Congress approved the latest 30-day prorogation on March 24 amid ongoing violence and security threats—without resorting to the more severe state of siege, which requires threats like war or internal rebellion. Kast's security agenda emphasizes military deployments, northern border fortifications via the Escudo Fronterizo plan, and intelligence reforms, stabilizing conditions rather than escalating. Absent major unrest or official announcements signaling sitio declaration by June 30, traders price a 92% "No" probability, viewing current measures as sufficient amid the post-Boric transition. Late-breaking crises could shift odds, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$40,372End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Under new President José Antonio Kast, inaugurated March 11, 2026, Chile has extended states of constitutional emergency in the Macrozona Sur—Congress approved the latest 30-day prorogation on March 24 amid ongoing violence and security threats—without resorting to the more severe state of siege, which requires threats like war or internal rebellion. Kast's security agenda emphasizes military deployments, northern border fortifications via the Escudo Fronterizo plan, and intelligence reforms, stabilizing conditions rather than escalating. Absent major unrest or official announcements signaling sitio declaration by June 30, traders price a 92% "No" probability, viewing current measures as sufficient amid the post-Boric transition. Late-breaking crises could shift odds, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$40,372End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Under new President José Antonio Kast, inaugurated March 11, 2026, Chile has extended states of constitutional emergency in the Macrozona Sur—Congress approved the latest 30-day prorogation on March 24 amid ongoing violence and security threats—without resorting to the more severe state of siege, which requires threats like war or internal rebellion. Kast's security agenda emphasizes military deployments, northern border fortifications via the Escudo Fronterizo plan, and intelligence reforms, stabilizing conditions rather than escalating. Absent major unrest or official announcements signaling sitio declaration by June 30, traders price a 92% "No" probability, viewing current measures as sufficient amid the post-Boric transition. Late-breaking crises could shift odds, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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