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World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

Market icon
World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 61.5%

Reza Pahlavi 13%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 8.3%

Hassan Rouhani 5.0%

Polymarket

$6,398,528 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 61.5%

Reza Pahlavi 13%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 8.3%

Hassan Rouhani 5.0%

Polymarket

$6,398,528 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$1,486,845 Vol.

62%

Reza Pahlavi

$150,397 Vol.

13%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$167,468 Vol.

8%

Hassan Rouhani

$279,113 Vol.

5%

Alireza Arafi

$778,104 Vol.

4%

No Head of State

$368,190 Vol.

3%

Abbas Araghchi

$102,112 Vol.

2%

Hassan Khomeini

$729,219 Vol.

1%

Sadegh Larijani

$174,991 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$242,577 Vol.

1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$50,342 Vol.

1%

Maryam Rajavi

$245,300 Vol.

1%

Mohammad Khatami

$231,116 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$149,021 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$53,681 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$194,884 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$75,328 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$271,564 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$22,330 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$32,832 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$27,015 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$19,666 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$48,955 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$35,411 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$65,962 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$47,268 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$44,403 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$28,341 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$14,600 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$24,638 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 61.1% to remain Iran's Supreme Leader by year-end 2026, anchored by the Assembly of Experts' March 8 appointment following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination in US-Israeli airstrikes, marking a shift toward hereditary rule with his IRGC ties. Recent April reports of Mojtaba's severe injuries—facial disfigurement, leg fractures, and possible coma—from the same strike, coupled with his absence from public view and disputed state videos, introduce uncertainty despite official continuity. Reza Pahlavi's 13% reflects his April 7 military appeals and CPAC pledges for transitional leadership amid regime pressures, while lower odds for Ghalibaf and others highlight hardliner consolidation risks in the power vacuum.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$6,398,528
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 61.1% to remain Iran's Supreme Leader by year-end 2026, anchored by the Assembly of Experts' March 8 appointment following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination in US-Israeli airstrikes, marking a shift toward hereditary rule with his IRGC ties. Recent April reports of Mojtaba's severe injuries—facial disfigurement, leg fractures, and possible coma—from the same strike, coupled with his absence from public view and disputed state videos, introduce uncertainty despite official continuity. Reza Pahlavi's 13% reflects his April 7 military appeals and CPAC pledges for transitional leadership amid regime pressures, while lower odds for Ghalibaf and others highlight hardliner consolidation risks in the power vacuum.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$6,398,528
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

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US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

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Iran leadership change by December 31?

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Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leader end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 62%, followed by "Reza Pahlavi" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 62¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leader end of 2026?" has generated $6.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leader end of 2026?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leader end of 2026?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 62%, meaning the market assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Reza Pahlavi" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leader end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.