Recent mutual accusations of violating the Orthodox Easter ceasefire, with Russia reporting over 1,900 Ukrainian breaches and Kyiv confirming two civilian deaths amid drone strikes, highlight persistent hostilities and eroded trust, anchoring trader consensus at 58% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027. US-mediated peace talks, renewed post-2025 under President Trump including February Geneva meetings, remain stalled on core disputes like Russian territorial demands in Donbas and Ukrainian security guarantees, compounded by a Kremlin-noted "pause" as Washington shifts focus to Iran tensions. Battlefield stalemates persist with incremental Russian advances and Ukrainian drone campaigns, though prisoner swaps signal limited goodwill; no major diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds significantly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?
$14,231 Vol.
$14,231 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
$14,231 Vol.
$14,231 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Recent mutual accusations of violating the Orthodox Easter ceasefire, with Russia reporting over 1,900 Ukrainian breaches and Kyiv confirming two civilian deaths amid drone strikes, highlight persistent hostilities and eroded trust, anchoring trader consensus at 58% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027. US-mediated peace talks, renewed post-2025 under President Trump including February Geneva meetings, remain stalled on core disputes like Russian territorial demands in Donbas and Ukrainian security guarantees, compounded by a Kremlin-noted "pause" as Washington shifts focus to Iran tensions. Battlefield stalemates persist with incremental Russian advances and Ukrainian drone campaigns, though prisoner swaps signal limited goodwill; no major diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds significantly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
Volume
$14,231End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Recent mutual accusations of violating the Orthodox Easter ceasefire, with Russia reporting over 1,900 Ukrainian breaches and Kyiv confirming two civilian deaths amid drone strikes, highlight persistent hostilities and eroded trust, anchoring trader consensus at 58% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027. US-mediated peace talks, renewed post-2025 under President Trump including February Geneva meetings, remain stalled on core disputes like Russian territorial demands in Donbas and Ukrainian security guarantees, compounded by a Kremlin-noted "pause" as Washington shifts focus to Iran tensions. Battlefield stalemates persist with incremental Russian advances and Ukrainian drone campaigns, though prisoner swaps signal limited goodwill; no major diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds significantly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$14,231End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent mutual accusations of violating the Orthodox Easter ceasefire, with Russia reporting over 1,900 Ukrainian breaches and Kyiv confirming two civilian deaths amid drone strikes, highlight persistent hostilities and eroded trust, anchoring trader consensus at 58% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027. US-mediated peace talks, renewed post-2025 under President Trump including February Geneva meetings, remain stalled on core disputes like Russian territorial demands in Donbas and Ukrainian security guarantees, compounded by a Kremlin-noted "pause" as Washington shifts focus to Iran tensions. Battlefield stalemates persist with incremental Russian advances and Ukrainian drone campaigns, though prisoner swaps signal limited goodwill; no major diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds significantly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions