Colombia Presidential Election

Colombia Presidential Election — Discussion

Takeshi- · 2025-07-29T17:32:52.057Z

Discussion about Colombia Presidential Election. Traders share insights and predictions on Polymarket.

Politics·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election

Paloma Valencia 42.5%

Iván Cepeda Castro 38%

Abelardo de la Espriella 19%

Claudia López (IND) <1%

$19,170,921 Vol.

Jun 21, 2026

Paloma Valencia

$628,103 Vol.

43%

Iván Cepeda Castro

$497,282 Vol.

38%

Abelardo de la Espriella

$629,344 Vol.

19%

Claudia López (IND)

$637,880 Vol.

<1%

Sergio Fajardo (DC)

$1,347,294 Vol.

<1%

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)

$1,295,081 Vol.

<1%

Carlos Felipe Córdoba

$105,987 Vol.

<1%

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)

$786,174 Vol.

<1%

Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)

$1,180,651 Vol.

<1%

Roy Barreras

$754,181 Vol.

<1%

Vicky Dávila (IND)

$2,402,038 Vol.

<1%

David Luna Sánchez (IND)

$1,352,908 Vol.

<1%

Gustavo Bolívar (HC)

$2,958,246 Vol.

<1%

Juan Manuel Galán (NL)

$502,376 Vol.

<1%

Mauricio Cárdenas

$2,193,753 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Quintero

$415,910 Vol.

<1%

Enrique Peñalosa

$1,155,849 Vol.

<1%

Juan Carlos Pinzón

$303,360 Vol.

<1%

Paloma Valencia 42.5%

Iván Cepeda Castro 38%

Abelardo de la Espriella 19%

Claudia López (IND) <1%

$19,170,921 Vol.

Jun 21, 2026

Paloma Valencia

$628,103 Vol.

43%

Iván Cepeda Castro

$497,282 Vol.

38%

Abelardo de la Espriella

$629,344 Vol.

19%

Claudia López (IND)

$637,880 Vol.

<1%

Sergio Fajardo (DC)

$1,347,294 Vol.

<1%

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)

$1,295,081 Vol.

<1%

Carlos Felipe Córdoba

$105,987 Vol.

<1%

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)

$786,174 Vol.

<1%

Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)

$1,180,651 Vol.

<1%

Roy Barreras

$754,181 Vol.

<1%

Vicky Dávila (IND)

$2,402,038 Vol.

<1%

David Luna Sánchez (IND)

$1,352,908 Vol.

<1%

Gustavo Bolívar (HC)

$2,958,246 Vol.

<1%

Juan Manuel Galán (NL)

$502,376 Vol.

<1%

Mauricio Cárdenas

$2,193,753 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Quintero

$415,910 Vol.

<1%

Enrique Peñalosa

$1,155,849 Vol.

<1%

Juan Carlos Pinzón

$303,360 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

87%

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

94%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Colombia Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Paloma Valencia" at 43%, followed by "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Colombia Presidential Election" has generated $19.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Colombia Presidential Election," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Colombia Presidential Election" is "Paloma Valencia" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Colombia Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Colombia Presidential Election." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $19.2 million traded on “Colombia Presidential Election,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Colombia Presidential Election," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 43¢ for "Paloma Valencia" in the "Colombia Presidential Election" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 43% chance that "Paloma Valencia" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 43¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 57¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Colombia Presidential Election" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 21, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Colombia Presidential Election" market has an active community of 377 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Colombia Presidential Election." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Colombia Presidential Election

Colombia Presidential Election

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

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Comments (377)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

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