Trader consensus prices a near-certain "No" on a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30, reflecting entrenched political stability under President Zelenskyy's wartime leadership amid Russia's ongoing invasion. Martial law, extended since February 2022, suspends elections and curbs dissent, while security forces and military high command—despite mobilization strains and public protests over territorial recruitment center tactics—prioritize frontline defense over internal challenges. No verifiable plots, high-level military disloyalty, or leadership crises have surfaced in the past 30 days, with focus remaining on diplomatic talks and battlefield escalations. Realistic shifts could stem from catastrophic defeats, major scandals, or assassinations, though institutional controls make such scenarios improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Jun 30, 2026
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Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a near-certain "No" on a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30, reflecting entrenched political stability under President Zelenskyy's wartime leadership amid Russia's ongoing invasion. Martial law, extended since February 2022, suspends elections and curbs dissent, while security forces and military high command—despite mobilization strains and public protests over territorial recruitment center tactics—prioritize frontline defense over internal challenges. No verifiable plots, high-level military disloyalty, or leadership crises have surfaced in the past 30 days, with focus remaining on diplomatic talks and battlefield escalations. Realistic shifts could stem from catastrophic defeats, major scandals, or assassinations, though institutional controls make such scenarios improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ET
Volume
$8,836End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a near-certain "No" on a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30, reflecting entrenched political stability under President Zelenskyy's wartime leadership amid Russia's ongoing invasion. Martial law, extended since February 2022, suspends elections and curbs dissent, while security forces and military high command—despite mobilization strains and public protests over territorial recruitment center tactics—prioritize frontline defense over internal challenges. No verifiable plots, high-level military disloyalty, or leadership crises have surfaced in the past 30 days, with focus remaining on diplomatic talks and battlefield escalations. Realistic shifts could stem from catastrophic defeats, major scandals, or assassinations, though institutional controls make such scenarios improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,836End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a near-certain "No" on a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30, reflecting entrenched political stability under President Zelenskyy's wartime leadership amid Russia's ongoing invasion. Martial law, extended since February 2022, suspends elections and curbs dissent, while security forces and military high command—despite mobilization strains and public protests over territorial recruitment center tactics—prioritize frontline defense over internal challenges. No verifiable plots, high-level military disloyalty, or leadership crises have surfaced in the past 30 days, with focus remaining on diplomatic talks and battlefield escalations. Realistic shifts could stem from catastrophic defeats, major scandals, or assassinations, though institutional controls make such scenarios improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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