Recent Datafolha and Ideia polls from early April 2026 show President Luiz InĂĄcio Lula da Silva leading Senator FlĂĄvio Bolsonaro by narrow 3-4 point margins in first-round scenariosâ39% to 35% and 40.4% to 37%, respectivelyâwith SĂŁo Paulo Governor TarcĂsio de Freitas at 5-6.5% and others like Renan Santos under 3%. These slim leads, often within margins of error, have solidified trader consensus around a Lula first-round victory under 5% at 39%, reflecting statistical ties that echo FlĂĄvio's surge and ParanĂĄ Pesquisas' late March near-tie (41.3%-37.8%). Ratinho JĂșnior's March 23 withdrawal failed to consolidate the right, keeping the race fragmented ahead of the October 4 first round. Runoff simulations showing ties further underscore the contested path to 50%+1.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
FlĂĄvio Bolsonaro <5% 20%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
FlĂĄvio Bolsonaro 5-10% 12.8%
$218,099 Vol.
$218,099 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
7%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
4%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
37%
FlĂĄvio Bolsonaro 10%+
6%
FlĂĄvio Bolsonaro 5-10%
13%
FlĂĄvio Bolsonaro <5%
20%
Renan Santos Victory
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho JĂșnior Victory
3%
Other
5%
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
FlĂĄvio Bolsonaro <5% 20%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
FlĂĄvio Bolsonaro 5-10% 12.8%
$218,099 Vol.
$218,099 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$3,725 Vol.
7%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$1,515 Vol.
4%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$5,933 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$1,795 Vol.
37%
FlĂĄvio Bolsonaro 10%+
$959 Vol.
6%
FlĂĄvio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$1,085 Vol.
13%
FlĂĄvio Bolsonaro <5%
$2,653 Vol.
20%
Renan Santos Victory
$197,533 Vol.
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$644 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho JĂșnior Victory
$886 Vol.
3%
Other
$1,372 Vol.
5%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the âmargin of victoryâ is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Datafolha and Ideia polls from early April 2026 show President Luiz InĂĄcio Lula da Silva leading Senator FlĂĄvio Bolsonaro by narrow 3-4 point margins in first-round scenariosâ39% to 35% and 40.4% to 37%, respectivelyâwith SĂŁo Paulo Governor TarcĂsio de Freitas at 5-6.5% and others like Renan Santos under 3%. These slim leads, often within margins of error, have solidified trader consensus around a Lula first-round victory under 5% at 39%, reflecting statistical ties that echo FlĂĄvio's surge and ParanĂĄ Pesquisas' late March near-tie (41.3%-37.8%). Ratinho JĂșnior's March 23 withdrawal failed to consolidate the right, keeping the race fragmented ahead of the October 4 first round. Runoff simulations showing ties further underscore the contested path to 50%+1.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the âmargin of victoryâ is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the âmargin of victoryâ is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$218,099End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the âmargin of victoryâ is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Datafolha and Ideia polls from early April 2026 show President Luiz InĂĄcio Lula da Silva leading Senator FlĂĄvio Bolsonaro by narrow 3-4 point margins in first-round scenariosâ39% to 35% and 40.4% to 37%, respectivelyâwith SĂŁo Paulo Governor TarcĂsio de Freitas at 5-6.5% and others like Renan Santos under 3%. These slim leads, often within margins of error, have solidified trader consensus around a Lula first-round victory under 5% at 39%, reflecting statistical ties that echo FlĂĄvio's surge and ParanĂĄ Pesquisas' late March near-tie (41.3%-37.8%). Ratinho JĂșnior's March 23 withdrawal failed to consolidate the right, keeping the race fragmented ahead of the October 4 first round. Runoff simulations showing ties further underscore the contested path to 50%+1.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the âmargin of victoryâ is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the âmargin of victoryâ is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$218,099End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Datafolha and Ideia polls from early April 2026 show President Luiz InĂĄcio Lula da Silva leading Senator FlĂĄvio Bolsonaro by narrow 3-4 point margins in first-round scenariosâ39% to 35% and 40.4% to 37%, respectivelyâwith SĂŁo Paulo Governor TarcĂsio de Freitas at 5-6.5% and others like Renan Santos under 3%. These slim leads, often within margins of error, have solidified trader consensus around a Lula first-round victory under 5% at 39%, reflecting statistical ties that echo FlĂĄvio's surge and ParanĂĄ Pesquisas' late March near-tie (41.3%-37.8%). Ratinho JĂșnior's March 23 withdrawal failed to consolidate the right, keeping the race fragmented ahead of the October 4 first round. Runoff simulations showing ties further underscore the contested path to 50%+1.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
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