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World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Market icon
World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Ronaldo Caiado 44%

Renan Santos 34%

Romeu Zema 9%

Fernando Haddad 4.8%

Polymarket

$179,897 Vol.

Ronaldo Caiado 44%

Renan Santos 34%

Romeu Zema 9%

Fernando Haddad 4.8%

Polymarket

$179,897 Vol.

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Ronaldo Caiado

$9,357 Vol.

44%

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Renan Santos

$22,795 Vol.

34%

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Romeu Zema

$3,084 Vol.

9%

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Fernando Haddad

$12,048 Vol.

5%

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Flávio Bolsonaro

$2,514 Vol.

4%

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Ratinho Júnior

$90,119 Vol.

3%

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Tarcisio de Freitas

$2,738 Vol.

2%

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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$2,900 Vol.

2%

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Jair Bolsonaro

$1,976 Vol.

2%

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Michelle Bolsonaro

$2,019 Vol.

1%

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Camilo Santana

$3,498 Vol.

1%

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Geraldo Alckmin

$2,684 Vol.

1%

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Eduardo Bolsonaro

$22,374 Vol.

1%

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Eduardo Leite

$888 Vol.

<1%

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Aldo Rebelo

$903 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).In recent Datafolha and Ideia polls from early April 2026, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round voting intentions at around 39-40% to 35-37%, crowding the field and leaving third place contested among right-of-center governors and outsiders. Ronaldo Caiado's trader consensus edge at 42% stems from his 5-6.5% showings as clear third in those surveys, bolstered by his April 4 resignation as Goiás governor to focus on the presidential bid, enhancing visibility in center-right circles. Renan Santos trails closely at 33.5% implied probability, fueled by outsider momentum in March AtlasIntel polling where he briefly overtook Caiado and Romeu Zema for third, appealing to anti-establishment voters amid fragmented opposition. Romeu Zema's 9% reflects steady but lower 3-4% poll support post his own gubernatorial resignation. Upcoming polls and campaign events through October 4 first-round voting could widen gaps via endorsements or regional swings in battleground states.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$179,897
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).In recent Datafolha and Ideia polls from early April 2026, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round voting intentions at around 39-40% to 35-37%, crowding the field and leaving third place contested among right-of-center governors and outsiders. Ronaldo Caiado's trader consensus edge at 42% stems from his 5-6.5% showings as clear third in those surveys, bolstered by his April 4 resignation as Goiás governor to focus on the presidential bid, enhancing visibility in center-right circles. Renan Santos trails closely at 33.5% implied probability, fueled by outsider momentum in March AtlasIntel polling where he briefly overtook Caiado and Romeu Zema for third, appealing to anti-establishment voters amid fragmented opposition. Romeu Zema's 9% reflects steady but lower 3-4% poll support post his own gubernatorial resignation. Upcoming polls and campaign events through October 4 first-round voting could widen gaps via endorsements or regional swings in battleground states.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$179,897
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related

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Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

64%
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

40%
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Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

12%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ronaldo Caiado" at 44%, followed by "Renan Santos" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" has generated $179.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" is "Ronaldo Caiado" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Renan Santos" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.