Recent Datafolha (April 7–9) and Ideia (April 3–7) polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by slim first-round margins of 4% and 3.4%, respectively, with Lula at 39–40% and Flávio at 35–37% amid fragmented right-wing support for Tarcísio de Freitas (5–6%) and Renan Santos (2–3%). Paraná Pesquisas and Nexus surveys from late March confirm this tight race, averaging 3–5% leads within margins of error, driving trader consensus toward Lula da Silva <5% victory at 40.5% implied probability. Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal has bolstered Flávio's position as the main challenger, while Lula's March 31 Alckmin running-mate announcement stabilized his campaign ahead of the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 20%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 11.1%
$217,999 Vol.
$217,999 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
6%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
4%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
38%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
11%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
20%
Renan Santos Victory
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
2%
Other
6%
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 20%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 11.1%
$217,999 Vol.
$217,999 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$3,725 Vol.
6%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$1,515 Vol.
4%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$5,833 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$1,795 Vol.
38%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$959 Vol.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$1,085 Vol.
11%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$2,653 Vol.
20%
Renan Santos Victory
$197,533 Vol.
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$644 Vol.
1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$886 Vol.
2%
Other
$1,372 Vol.
6%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Datafolha (April 7–9) and Ideia (April 3–7) polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by slim first-round margins of 4% and 3.4%, respectively, with Lula at 39–40% and Flávio at 35–37% amid fragmented right-wing support for Tarcísio de Freitas (5–6%) and Renan Santos (2–3%). Paraná Pesquisas and Nexus surveys from late March confirm this tight race, averaging 3–5% leads within margins of error, driving trader consensus toward Lula da Silva <5% victory at 40.5% implied probability. Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal has bolstered Flávio's position as the main challenger, while Lula's March 31 Alckmin running-mate announcement stabilized his campaign ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$217,999End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Datafolha (April 7–9) and Ideia (April 3–7) polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by slim first-round margins of 4% and 3.4%, respectively, with Lula at 39–40% and Flávio at 35–37% amid fragmented right-wing support for Tarcísio de Freitas (5–6%) and Renan Santos (2–3%). Paraná Pesquisas and Nexus surveys from late March confirm this tight race, averaging 3–5% leads within margins of error, driving trader consensus toward Lula da Silva <5% victory at 40.5% implied probability. Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal has bolstered Flávio's position as the main challenger, while Lula's March 31 Alckmin running-mate announcement stabilized his campaign ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$217,999End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Datafolha (April 7–9) and Ideia (April 3–7) polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by slim first-round margins of 4% and 3.4%, respectively, with Lula at 39–40% and Flávio at 35–37% amid fragmented right-wing support for Tarcísio de Freitas (5–6%) and Renan Santos (2–3%). Paraná Pesquisas and Nexus surveys from late March confirm this tight race, averaging 3–5% leads within margins of error, driving trader consensus toward Lula da Silva <5% victory at 40.5% implied probability. Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal has bolstered Flávio's position as the main challenger, while Lula's March 31 Alckmin running-mate announcement stabilized his campaign ahead of the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
12%
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