Strait Of Hormuz predictions & odds

·
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

20%

June 30

$23M Vol.

$943K today

$599K Liq.

334

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

18%

$8M Vol.

$569K today

$258K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

56%

May 31

$266K Vol.

$266K today

$64.1K Liq.

12

Ends in 16 days

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

21%

Oil Sanction Relief

$351K Vol.

$106K today

$92.9K Liq.

14

Ends in 16 days

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?

11%

United Kingdom

$2M Vol.

$99.9K today

$190K Liq.

120

Ends in 16 days

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?

27%

April 30

$4M Vol.

$89.7K today

$47.6K Liq.

163

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

21%

April 30

$1M Vol.

$72.4K today

$44.2K Liq.

70

Ends in 16 days

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?

16%

April 30

$2M Vol.

$58.5K today

$57.0K Liq.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

48%

$648K Vol.

$73.1K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

67%

20+

$317K Vol.

$74.8K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8-12?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8-12?

74%

10

$154K Vol.

$77.1K Liq.

37

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 6-12)

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 6-12)

65%

60+

$208K Vol.

$20.1K Liq.

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

40%

0-10

$97.6K Vol.

$56.5K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 12?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 12?

72%

8-11

$94.6K Vol.

$21.9K Liq.

Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?

Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?

37%

$892 Vol.

$94 Liq.

1

Ends in 16 days

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Strait Of Hormuz.

Polymarket currently hosts 15 active markets for Strait Of Hormuz that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $42.2M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 20% chance to June 30. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Strait Of Hormuz predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.