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Politics·Primaries

Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Mandela Barnes 39%

Francesca Hong 29.3%

Sara Rodriguez 25%

Kelda Roys 2.8%

Polymarket

$47,225 Vol.

Mandela Barnes 39%

Francesca Hong 29.3%

Sara Rodriguez 25%

Kelda Roys 2.8%

Polymarket

$47,225 Vol.

Mandela Barnes

$7,684 Vol.

39%

Francesca Hong

$6,364 Vol.

29%

Sara Rodriguez

$8,385 Vol.

25%

Kelda Roys

$2,172 Vol.

3%

Chris Larson

$8,490 Vol.

1%

David Crowley

$2,639 Vol.

1%

Tim Jacobson

$1,597 Vol.

1%

Joel Brennan

$2,007 Vol.

<1%

Zachary Roper

$1,490 Vol.

<1%

Tom Nelson

$1,558 Vol.

<1%

Brett Hulsey

$1,471 Vol.

<1%

Missy Hughes

$1,611 Vol.

<1%

Melissa Agard

$1,755 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary places former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes ahead at 38.5% implied probability, reflecting his leading name recognition—61% among Democrats from the February Marquette poll—stemming from his 2022 U.S. Senate bid, ahead of State Rep. Francesca Hong (29.3%) and Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez (24.5%). Recent Marquette (March 11-18) and Patriot (March 10-16) polls show Hong edging Barnes (14-27% vs. 11-18%) amid 43-65% undecided voters, underscoring low engagement and fragmented support in a crowded 12-candidate field with the August 11 primary four months away. Separation could arise from key endorsements, union backing, fundraising tallies, or debates highlighting electability against Republican frontrunner Tom Tiffany.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$47,225
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary places former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes ahead at 38.5% implied probability, reflecting his leading name recognition—61% among Democrats from the February Marquette poll—stemming from his 2022 U.S. Senate bid, ahead of State Rep. Francesca Hong (29.3%) and Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez (24.5%). Recent Marquette (March 11-18) and Patriot (March 10-16) polls show Hong edging Barnes (14-27% vs. 11-18%) amid 43-65% undecided voters, underscoring low engagement and fragmented support in a crowded 12-candidate field with the August 11 primary four months away. Separation could arise from key endorsements, union backing, fundraising tallies, or debates highlighting electability against Republican frontrunner Tom Tiffany.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$47,225
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mandela Barnes" at 39%, followed by "Francesca Hong" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $47.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner" is "Mandela Barnes" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Francesca Hong" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.