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Elections·Trump

NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

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Elections·Trump

NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

Micah Lasher 47%

Alex Bores 32%

Jack Schlossberg 15%

George Conway 1.6%

Polymarket

$148,347 Vol.

Micah Lasher 47%

Alex Bores 32%

Jack Schlossberg 15%

George Conway 1.6%

Polymarket

$148,347 Vol.

Micah Lasher

$5,083 Vol.

47%

Alex Bores

$3,187 Vol.

32%

Jack Schlossberg

$7,286 Vol.

15%

George Conway

$1,598 Vol.

2%

Brad Lander

$11,328 Vol.

1%

Erik Bottcher

$2,018 Vol.

1%

Lina Khan

$29,019 Vol.

1%

Liz Krueger

$36,978 Vol.

1%

Julie Menin

$22,989 Vol.

1%

Cameron Kasky

$2,498 Vol.

1%

Andrew Cuomo

$1,669 Vol.

<1%

Brad Hoylman-Sigal

$4,774 Vol.

<1%

Keith Powers

$3,244 Vol.

<1%

Carolyn Maloney

$1,889 Vol.

<1%

Gale Brewer

$1,376 Vol.

<1%

Chelsea Clinton

$7,301 Vol.

<1%

Liam Elkind

$1,553 Vol.

<1%

Scott Stringer

$2,587 Vol.

<1%

Cynthia Nixon

$1,967 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the closely contested NY-12 Democratic primary on June 23 to succeed retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler, trader consensus positions Assemblymember Micah Lasher as frontrunner at 46.5% implied probability, driven by Michael Bloomberg's March 12 endorsement and $5 million pledge, Rep. Nydia Velázquez's March 19 backing, and his status as a former Nadler aide with strong local club support. Assemblymember Alex Bores holds 32% on momentum from the DC37 municipal workers union endorsement March 26 and leading or near-top finishes in late February-early March polls from PPP and others amid high undecideds. Jack Schlossberg trails at 15%, buoyed by Kennedy family name recognition but tempered by mixed survey results and limited elected experience. Lasher's recent April 9 ballot challenge against a longshot rival highlights field aggressiveness, with upcoming April 23 candidate forums poised to influence undecided voters in this open Manhattan seat.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$148,347
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the closely contested NY-12 Democratic primary on June 23 to succeed retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler, trader consensus positions Assemblymember Micah Lasher as frontrunner at 46.5% implied probability, driven by Michael Bloomberg's March 12 endorsement and $5 million pledge, Rep. Nydia Velázquez's March 19 backing, and his status as a former Nadler aide with strong local club support. Assemblymember Alex Bores holds 32% on momentum from the DC37 municipal workers union endorsement March 26 and leading or near-top finishes in late February-early March polls from PPP and others amid high undecideds. Jack Schlossberg trails at 15%, buoyed by Kennedy family name recognition but tempered by mixed survey results and limited elected experience. Lasher's recent April 9 ballot challenge against a longshot rival highlights field aggressiveness, with upcoming April 23 candidate forums poised to influence undecided voters in this open Manhattan seat.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$148,347
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Micah Lasher" at 47%, followed by "Alex Bores" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $148.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 21, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Micah Lasher" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alex Bores" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.