United Russia's 96.3% implied probability as the State Duma election winner on September 18–20 reflects trader consensus on its entrenched dominance as the ruling party backed by President Putin, commanding state media, administrative resources, and the Central Election Commission in Russia's mixed proportional representation and single-mandate system. Recent preparations, including reserving up to 150 safe seats for Ukraine war veterans and barring genuine opposition like Yekaterina Duntsova's Rassvet party or Boris Nadezhdin, have solidified this position amid suppressed anti-war candidacies from Yabloko and others declared last week. Systemic rivals like KPRF and LDPR remain loyal spoilers. Upsets would require improbable shocks such as elite defections, mass protests from economic woes, or a late diplomatic reversal in Ukraine.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUnited Russia (ER) 96.2%
Civic Platform (GP) <1%
New People (NL) <1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) <1%
$917,379 Vol.
$917,379 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
United Russia (ER)
96%
Civic Platform (GP)
1%
New People (NL)
1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
1%
Rodina
<1%
United Russia (ER) 96.2%
Civic Platform (GP) <1%
New People (NL) <1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) <1%
$917,379 Vol.
$917,379 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
United Russia (ER)
$472,284 Vol.
96%
Civic Platform (GP)
$80,126 Vol.
1%
New People (NL)
$46,689 Vol.
1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
$77,486 Vol.
1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
$31,684 Vol.
1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
$133,932 Vol.
1%
Rodina
$75,178 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's 96.3% implied probability as the State Duma election winner on September 18–20 reflects trader consensus on its entrenched dominance as the ruling party backed by President Putin, commanding state media, administrative resources, and the Central Election Commission in Russia's mixed proportional representation and single-mandate system. Recent preparations, including reserving up to 150 safe seats for Ukraine war veterans and barring genuine opposition like Yekaterina Duntsova's Rassvet party or Boris Nadezhdin, have solidified this position amid suppressed anti-war candidacies from Yabloko and others declared last week. Systemic rivals like KPRF and LDPR remain loyal spoilers. Upsets would require improbable shocks such as elite defections, mass protests from economic woes, or a late diplomatic reversal in Ukraine.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Market Opened: Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
Volume
$917,379End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's 96.3% implied probability as the State Duma election winner on September 18–20 reflects trader consensus on its entrenched dominance as the ruling party backed by President Putin, commanding state media, administrative resources, and the Central Election Commission in Russia's mixed proportional representation and single-mandate system. Recent preparations, including reserving up to 150 safe seats for Ukraine war veterans and barring genuine opposition like Yekaterina Duntsova's Rassvet party or Boris Nadezhdin, have solidified this position amid suppressed anti-war candidacies from Yabloko and others declared last week. Systemic rivals like KPRF and LDPR remain loyal spoilers. Upsets would require improbable shocks such as elite defections, mass protests from economic woes, or a late diplomatic reversal in Ukraine.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$917,379End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia's 96.3% implied probability as the State Duma election winner on September 18–20 reflects trader consensus on its entrenched dominance as the ruling party backed by President Putin, commanding state media, administrative resources, and the Central Election Commission in Russia's mixed proportional representation and single-mandate system. Recent preparations, including reserving up to 150 safe seats for Ukraine war veterans and barring genuine opposition like Yekaterina Duntsova's Rassvet party or Boris Nadezhdin, have solidified this position amid suppressed anti-war candidacies from Yabloko and others declared last week. Systemic rivals like KPRF and LDPR remain loyal spoilers. Upsets would require improbable shocks such as elite defections, mass protests from economic woes, or a late diplomatic reversal in Ukraine.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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