Early official counts from Peru's National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE), with over 40% of ballots tallied as of April 13, show Keiko Fujimori leading Rafael López Aliaga by a razor-thin 1.01 percentage points (23.47% to 22.46%), fueling trader consensus on a first-round margin under 5% in the fragmented 35-candidate field. Pre-election polls had forecasted this tight contest between right-wing frontrunners amid voter frustration with political instability, crime spikes, and corruption. Exit polls aligned closely, with Fujimori at 16.6% and challengers near 12%. Logistical delays extended voting in Lima, but partial rural and urban tallies remain stable. Remaining counts or recounts could narrow or flip the lead, potentially pushing López Aliaga ahead for the June 7 runoff spot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPeru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Peru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Keiko Fujimori <5% 96.5%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 2.3%
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%
Alfonso López Chau <5% <1%
$112,175 Vol.
$112,175 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga <5%
<1%
Alfonso López Chau 5%+
<1%
Alfonso López Chau <5%
<1%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+
2%
Keiko Fujimori <5%
97%
Jorge Nieto
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
<1%
Other
<1%
Keiko Fujimori <5% 96.5%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 2.3%
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%
Alfonso López Chau <5% <1%
$112,175 Vol.
$112,175 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+
$4,286 Vol.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%
$6,994 Vol.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%
$4,288 Vol.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga <5%
$8,176 Vol.
<1%
Alfonso López Chau 5%+
$4,379 Vol.
<1%
Alfonso López Chau <5%
$4,636 Vol.
<1%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+
$23,754 Vol.
2%
Keiko Fujimori <5%
$27,201 Vol.
97%
Jorge Nieto
$3,924 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
$4,759 Vol.
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
$2,991 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
$4,287 Vol.
<1%
Other
$12,551 Vol.
<1%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Early official counts from Peru's National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE), with over 40% of ballots tallied as of April 13, show Keiko Fujimori leading Rafael López Aliaga by a razor-thin 1.01 percentage points (23.47% to 22.46%), fueling trader consensus on a first-round margin under 5% in the fragmented 35-candidate field. Pre-election polls had forecasted this tight contest between right-wing frontrunners amid voter frustration with political instability, crime spikes, and corruption. Exit polls aligned closely, with Fujimori at 16.6% and challengers near 12%. Logistical delays extended voting in Lima, but partial rural and urban tallies remain stable. Remaining counts or recounts could narrow or flip the lead, potentially pushing López Aliaga ahead for the June 7 runoff spot.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
Volume
$112,175End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Early official counts from Peru's National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE), with over 40% of ballots tallied as of April 13, show Keiko Fujimori leading Rafael López Aliaga by a razor-thin 1.01 percentage points (23.47% to 22.46%), fueling trader consensus on a first-round margin under 5% in the fragmented 35-candidate field. Pre-election polls had forecasted this tight contest between right-wing frontrunners amid voter frustration with political instability, crime spikes, and corruption. Exit polls aligned closely, with Fujimori at 16.6% and challengers near 12%. Logistical delays extended voting in Lima, but partial rural and urban tallies remain stable. Remaining counts or recounts could narrow or flip the lead, potentially pushing López Aliaga ahead for the June 7 runoff spot.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$112,175End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Early official counts from Peru's National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE), with over 40% of ballots tallied as of April 13, show Keiko Fujimori leading Rafael López Aliaga by a razor-thin 1.01 percentage points (23.47% to 22.46%), fueling trader consensus on a first-round margin under 5% in the fragmented 35-candidate field. Pre-election polls had forecasted this tight contest between right-wing frontrunners amid voter frustration with political instability, crime spikes, and corruption. Exit polls aligned closely, with Fujimori at 16.6% and challengers near 12%. Logistical delays extended voting in Lima, but partial rural and urban tallies remain stable. Remaining counts or recounts could narrow or flip the lead, potentially pushing López Aliaga ahead for the June 7 runoff spot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
100%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
93%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
90%
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