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Politics·Trump

NJ-11 Special Election Winner

Market icon
Politics·Trump

NJ-11 Special Election Winner

Analilia Mejia 98.7%

Joe Hathaway 1.0%

Alan Bond <1%

Polymarket

$29,730 Vol.

Analilia Mejia 98.7%

Joe Hathaway 1.0%

Alan Bond <1%

Polymarket

$29,730 Vol.

Analilia Mejia

$20,595 Vol.

99%

Joe Hathaway

$6,204 Vol.

1%

Alan Bond

$2,931 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.**Analilia Mejia commands overwhelming trader consensus at 98.7% to win New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election on April 16, driven by the district's reliable Democratic lean—+9 for Harris, +17 for Biden—and her upset victory in the crowded February 5 Democratic primary, where former Rep. Tom Malinowski conceded, unifying party backing including from Teamsters Joint Council 73 and National Nurses United.** Recent catalysts include Mejia's two-to-one fundraising edge over Republican Joe Hathaway ($1.1 million raised versus $525,000) with superior cash-on-hand, an internal March poll showing her leading 53%-36%, and robust early voting exceeding 39,000 ballots after initial days, favoring Democrats in low-turnout specials. Minimal odds for Hathaway (1.1%) or independent Alan Bond (0.1%) reflect GOP challenges in mobilizing amid structural headwinds; realistic disruptions would require a major scandal, health issue, or unforeseen Republican surge, though historical base rates in safe blue specials suggest stability.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
Volume
$29,730
End Date
Apr 16, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.**Analilia Mejia commands overwhelming trader consensus at 98.7% to win New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election on April 16, driven by the district's reliable Democratic lean—+9 for Harris, +17 for Biden—and her upset victory in the crowded February 5 Democratic primary, where former Rep. Tom Malinowski conceded, unifying party backing including from Teamsters Joint Council 73 and National Nurses United.** Recent catalysts include Mejia's two-to-one fundraising edge over Republican Joe Hathaway ($1.1 million raised versus $525,000) with superior cash-on-hand, an internal March poll showing her leading 53%-36%, and robust early voting exceeding 39,000 ballots after initial days, favoring Democrats in low-turnout specials. Minimal odds for Hathaway (1.1%) or independent Alan Bond (0.1%) reflect GOP challenges in mobilizing amid structural headwinds; realistic disruptions would require a major scandal, health issue, or unforeseen Republican surge, though historical base rates in safe blue specials suggest stability.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
Volume
$29,730
End Date
Apr 16, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.

Related

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Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-11 House seat?

90%
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Will Elijah Dixon be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12?

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Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-10 House seat?

93%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"NJ-11 Special Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Analilia Mejia" at 99%, followed by "Joe Hathaway" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NJ-11 Special Election Winner" has generated $29.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NJ-11 Special Election Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NJ-11 Special Election Winner" is "Analilia Mejia" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Joe Hathaway" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NJ-11 Special Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.