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Geopolitics·Iran

Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Iran

Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?

11% chance
Polymarket

$13,906 Vol.

11% chance
Polymarket

$13,906 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nechirvan Barzani ceases to be the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Barzani’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nechirvan Barzani and the Kurdistan Regional Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Trader consensus favors Nechirvan Barzani remaining Kurdistan Regional Government President at 89.3% implied probability on "No," reflecting his continued active leadership amid regional tensions.** Recent developments, including a March 2026 drone strike by Iranian-backed militias on his Duhok residence—which Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani condemned—have not disrupted his role, as Barzani reaffirmed KRG neutrality and non-participation in U.S.-Iran escalations during calls with U.S. Special Envoy Tom Barrack and others. In early April, he welcomed the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, met Coalition Forces commanders on April 9, and urged militia control for Iraq's stability, signaling institutional continuity despite ongoing KRG parliamentary government formation delays since October 2024 elections. No official announcements indicate resignation or replacement, with his pragmatic diplomacy sustaining trader confidence absent late-breaking scandals or health issues.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nechirvan Barzani ceases to be the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Barzani’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nechirvan Barzani and the Kurdistan Regional Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$13,906
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nechirvan Barzani ceases to be the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Barzani’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nechirvan Barzani and the Kurdistan Regional Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nechirvan Barzani ceases to be the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Barzani’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nechirvan Barzani and the Kurdistan Regional Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Trader consensus favors Nechirvan Barzani remaining Kurdistan Regional Government President at 89.3% implied probability on "No," reflecting his continued active leadership amid regional tensions.** Recent developments, including a March 2026 drone strike by Iranian-backed militias on his Duhok residence—which Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani condemned—have not disrupted his role, as Barzani reaffirmed KRG neutrality and non-participation in U.S.-Iran escalations during calls with U.S. Special Envoy Tom Barrack and others. In early April, he welcomed the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, met Coalition Forces commanders on April 9, and urged militia control for Iraq's stability, signaling institutional continuity despite ongoing KRG parliamentary government formation delays since October 2024 elections. No official announcements indicate resignation or replacement, with his pragmatic diplomacy sustaining trader confidence absent late-breaking scandals or health issues.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nechirvan Barzani ceases to be the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Barzani’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nechirvan Barzani and the Kurdistan Regional Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$13,906
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nechirvan Barzani ceases to be the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Barzani’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nechirvan Barzani and the Kurdistan Regional Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 11% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 11¢, the market collectively assigns a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?" has generated $13.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?" is 11% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.