Trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 80.5% to retain Montana's U.S. Senate seat in the November 2026 election, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean—evidenced by Tim Sheehy's 2024 victory over Jon Tester and Donald Trump's consistent double-digit margins. Incumbent Steve Daines's abrupt withdrawal on March 4, 2026, minutes before the filing deadline, cleared the primary path for his endorsed successor, former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who secured backing from Trump, Sen. Sheehy, and Gov. Greg Gianforte amid some intraparty backlash. Pre-withdrawal February polls by American Pulse showed Daines leading Democrats like Reilly Neill by 19–27 points; no post-shift surveys have emerged. Democrats face a fragmented primary field lacking a clear frontrunner, with the June 2 primaries poised to test GOP unity around Alme. Late-breaking scandals or national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap, but structural advantages keep Republicans dominant.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$61,064 Vol.
$61,064 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
81%
Democrat
12%
$61,064 Vol.
$61,064 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$34,850 Vol.
81%
Democrat
$26,213 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 80.5% to retain Montana's U.S. Senate seat in the November 2026 election, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean—evidenced by Tim Sheehy's 2024 victory over Jon Tester and Donald Trump's consistent double-digit margins. Incumbent Steve Daines's abrupt withdrawal on March 4, 2026, minutes before the filing deadline, cleared the primary path for his endorsed successor, former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who secured backing from Trump, Sen. Sheehy, and Gov. Greg Gianforte amid some intraparty backlash. Pre-withdrawal February polls by American Pulse showed Daines leading Democrats like Reilly Neill by 19–27 points; no post-shift surveys have emerged. Democrats face a fragmented primary field lacking a clear frontrunner, with the June 2 primaries poised to test GOP unity around Alme. Late-breaking scandals or national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap, but structural advantages keep Republicans dominant.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$61,064End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 80.5% to retain Montana's U.S. Senate seat in the November 2026 election, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean—evidenced by Tim Sheehy's 2024 victory over Jon Tester and Donald Trump's consistent double-digit margins. Incumbent Steve Daines's abrupt withdrawal on March 4, 2026, minutes before the filing deadline, cleared the primary path for his endorsed successor, former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who secured backing from Trump, Sen. Sheehy, and Gov. Greg Gianforte amid some intraparty backlash. Pre-withdrawal February polls by American Pulse showed Daines leading Democrats like Reilly Neill by 19–27 points; no post-shift surveys have emerged. Democrats face a fragmented primary field lacking a clear frontrunner, with the June 2 primaries poised to test GOP unity around Alme. Late-breaking scandals or national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap, but structural advantages keep Republicans dominant.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$61,064End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 80.5% to retain Montana's U.S. Senate seat in the November 2026 election, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean—evidenced by Tim Sheehy's 2024 victory over Jon Tester and Donald Trump's consistent double-digit margins. Incumbent Steve Daines's abrupt withdrawal on March 4, 2026, minutes before the filing deadline, cleared the primary path for his endorsed successor, former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who secured backing from Trump, Sen. Sheehy, and Gov. Greg Gianforte amid some intraparty backlash. Pre-withdrawal February polls by American Pulse showed Daines leading Democrats like Reilly Neill by 19–27 points; no post-shift surveys have emerged. Democrats face a fragmented primary field lacking a clear frontrunner, with the June 2 primaries poised to test GOP unity around Alme. Late-breaking scandals or national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap, but structural advantages keep Republicans dominant.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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